Chapter 3
Comparisons of the Early Stages
of the COVID-19 Pandemic
in Different Regions
The early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe is compared with the epidemic dynamics in mainland China. The early stages of the pandemic in Italy,
Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland and USA are compared with the dynamics in
South Korea. The comparison of the epidemic outbreaks in Ukraine and its
neighboring countries is presented.
After the COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks in Italy and other countries, it was very
important to compare their dynamics with the cases growth rates in mainland China
and the Republic of Korea—regions where the numbers of accumulated cases were
high enough to make some statistics-based conclusions. It was also very interesting
to compare the initial stages of epidemic outbreaks in different regions and countries [31, 38–51]. In comparison with [31, 44, 46], where rather complicated
mathematical simulations were used (in particular, machine learning approaches),
we focus here on very simple methods of comparison, which allowed us to get
some predictions very quickly. In particular, preprint [42] has been submitted on
February 25, 2020 (three days after the epidemic outbreak in Italy).
In [42] and corresponding article [43], the following data for the number of
confirmed cumulative cases V j in Italy were used [3, 4]:
February 22—V j = 79, t j = 0
February 23—V j = 152, t j = 1
February 24—V j = 229, t j = 2
February 25—V j = 332, t j = 3
February 26—V j = 400, t j = 4
February 27—V j = 650, t j = 5
February 28—V j = 888, t j = 6
February 25—V j = 332, t j = 3
February 26—V j = 400, t j = 4
February 27—V j = 650, t j = 5
February 28—V j = 888, t j = 6
February 29—V j = 1049, t j = 7
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_3
15
Comparisons of the Early Stages
of the COVID-19 Pandemic
in Different Regions
The early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe is compared with the epidemic dynamics in mainland China. The early stages of the pandemic in Italy,
Spain, France, Germany, Switzerland and USA are compared with the dynamics in
South Korea. The comparison of the epidemic outbreaks in Ukraine and its
neighboring countries is presented.
After the COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks in Italy and other countries, it was very
important to compare their dynamics with the cases growth rates in mainland China
and the Republic of Korea—regions where the numbers of accumulated cases were
high enough to make some statistics-based conclusions. It was also very interesting
to compare the initial stages of epidemic outbreaks in different regions and countries [31, 38–51]. In comparison with [31, 44, 46], where rather complicated
mathematical simulations were used (in particular, machine learning approaches),
we focus here on very simple methods of comparison, which allowed us to get
some predictions very quickly. In particular, preprint [42] has been submitted on
February 25, 2020 (three days after the epidemic outbreak in Italy).
In [42] and corresponding article [43], the following data for the number of
confirmed cumulative cases V j in Italy were used [3, 4]:
February 22—V j = 79, t j = 0
February 23—V j = 152, t j = 1
February 24—V j = 229, t j = 2
February 25—V j = 332, t j = 3
February 26—V j = 400, t j = 4
February 27—V j = 650, t j = 5
February 28—V j = 888, t j = 6
February 25—V j = 332, t j = 3
February 26—V j = 400, t j = 4
February 27—V j = 650, t j = 5
February 28—V j = 888, t j = 6
February 29—V j = 1049, t j = 7
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_3
15