Chapter 12
Global Waves of the COVID-19
Pandemic
In this chapter, we will use the general SIR model to simulate the global COVID-19
pandemic waves. The results of calculations and corresponding predictions will be
presented.
The generalized SIR model (see Chaps. 9 and 10) allows us to simulate new
waves of an epidemic caused by changes in quarantine conditions, social behavior,
pathogen activity, etc. Here, we consider the case of sequential calculation of
epidemic waves i = 1, 2, 3 …, when it is possible to avoid determining the four
optimal unknown parameters N i ; m i ; I i ; R i since the values of I i and R i can be taken
from dependences for I and R calculated for the previous epidemic wave at the
moment of time when the following wave began. This approach has been successfully used in [89, 94]. In this chapter, four COVID-19 pandemic waves in the
world will be simulated.
We will use the data sets for global accumulated number of cases V j presented in
Table 6.22 and the results of SIR simulation of the first wave presented in
Chap. 6 (Table 6.25, prediction 2). The moments of time when the epidemic
dynamics changed (and new waves began) were identified in Chap. 8. The number
of observations was the same for all the cases (n i = 14; i = 2, 3, 4, 5). The corresponding time periods T ci used for calculations, optimal values of parameters and
other characteristics of the pandemic waves are shown in Tables 12.1 and 12.2.
All the predictions shown in Tables 6.25, 12.1 and 12.2 are too optimistic since
the global accumulated number of cases exceeded 47 millions already on
November 2, 2020. It means that the fifth epidemic wave is not the last one,
unfortunately. Permanent changes in the pandemic dynamics will cause high values
of the relative accuracy e i (it was impossible to apply formula (9.18) in November
2020, and corresponding values are not shown in Tables 12.1 and 12.2), despite
rather high values of F i =F C ð1; n À 2Þ and the correlation coefficients r i . The predictions of the final day of the COVID-19 pandemic waves are very different and
not optimistic. For example, the prediction for the second wave (see Table 12.1)
yielded only February 2022 as a possible end of the pandemic. It must be noted the
final sizes V i1 predicted for different global waves do not increase monotonously
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_12
147
Global Waves of the COVID-19
Pandemic
In this chapter, we will use the general SIR model to simulate the global COVID-19
pandemic waves. The results of calculations and corresponding predictions will be
presented.
The generalized SIR model (see Chaps. 9 and 10) allows us to simulate new
waves of an epidemic caused by changes in quarantine conditions, social behavior,
pathogen activity, etc. Here, we consider the case of sequential calculation of
epidemic waves i = 1, 2, 3 …, when it is possible to avoid determining the four
optimal unknown parameters N i ; m i ; I i ; R i since the values of I i and R i can be taken
from dependences for I and R calculated for the previous epidemic wave at the
moment of time when the following wave began. This approach has been successfully used in [89, 94]. In this chapter, four COVID-19 pandemic waves in the
world will be simulated.
We will use the data sets for global accumulated number of cases V j presented in
Table 6.22 and the results of SIR simulation of the first wave presented in
Chap. 6 (Table 6.25, prediction 2). The moments of time when the epidemic
dynamics changed (and new waves began) were identified in Chap. 8. The number
of observations was the same for all the cases (n i = 14; i = 2, 3, 4, 5). The corresponding time periods T ci used for calculations, optimal values of parameters and
other characteristics of the pandemic waves are shown in Tables 12.1 and 12.2.
All the predictions shown in Tables 6.25, 12.1 and 12.2 are too optimistic since
the global accumulated number of cases exceeded 47 millions already on
November 2, 2020. It means that the fifth epidemic wave is not the last one,
unfortunately. Permanent changes in the pandemic dynamics will cause high values
of the relative accuracy e i (it was impossible to apply formula (9.18) in November
2020, and corresponding values are not shown in Tables 12.1 and 12.2), despite
rather high values of F i =F C ð1; n À 2Þ and the correlation coefficients r i . The predictions of the final day of the COVID-19 pandemic waves are very different and
not optimistic. For example, the prediction for the second wave (see Table 12.1)
yielded only February 2022 as a possible end of the pandemic. It must be noted the
final sizes V i1 predicted for different global waves do not increase monotonously
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
I. Nesteruk, COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-6416-5_12
147