We can also easily calculate the effective reproduction numbers at the moments
of time t
Ã
i corresponding to the beginning of the ith wave with the use of (9.4) and
(9.29):
R ti ðt
Ã
i Þ %
ðN i À I i À R i Þ
m i
À 1
ð11:1Þ
The results of calculations are shown in Tables 10.1, 11.1 and 11.2 and in
Fig. 11.3 (by “squares”). It can be seen that the highest values of the reproduction
number correspond to the vacation season.
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11 Applications of the General SIR Model …