was predicted as the last day of the first epidemic wave in France (see Table 6.14),
the corresponding average value of dV/dt can be estimated with the use of accumulated numbers of cases 153356 (June 17) and 155256 (June 23). The result—
316.7 new cases per day—is lower than in Spain and Italy, but the theory yields
much lower figure. According to (8.6) and Table 6.14(prediction 2), dV=dt ! 1:1.
As in the cases of Spain and Italy, the much higher real number of new cases
testifies that quarantine weakening and changes in social behavior after the period
T c caused many additional COVID-19 cases and can be the reason of a new severe
wave in September–October 2020, visible in Fig. 8.7.
In German reports for WHO, there were six pairs of days with the same accumulated number of cases (April 29–30; June 17–18; June 30–July 1; July 12–13,
25–26, 28–29). These peculiarities cased some high values of the second derivative
(see “stars” in Fig. 8.8). Neglecting them, we can see a monotonic decrease in the
daily number of cases in April, May and early June (see “triangles” in Fig. 8.8). It
means that during this rather long period, there were no visible changes in epidemic
dynamics. But situation changed after mid-June probably due to quarantine
weakening and changes in social behavior.
We have used the period T c : April 9–29, to calculate the second prediction for
Germany and have obtained the value of relative accuracy e = 16.5% (see
Table 6.15). The predicted value of t final (August 4) corresponds to the period with
increasing average daily numbers of new cases. It means that next epidemic wave/
waves started in Germany before the finishing the first one. As of August 4, the
average value of dV/dt can be estimated with the use of accumulated numbers of
cases 206 926 (July 28) and 218 519 (August 11). The result is 828 new cases per
day is much higher than in Spain, Italy and France. According to (8.6) and
Table 6.15 (prediction 2), dV=dt ! 0:661. As in the cases of other EU countries,
the much higher real number of new cases testifies that quarantine weakening and
changes in social behavior after the period T c caused many additional COVID-19
cases and can be the reason of a new severe wave in October 2020, visible in
Fig. 8.8.
The number of cases in Austria corresponding May 5 is lower than for the
previous day. There is also the pair of days with the same accumulated number of
cases (July 20–21). These peculiarities cased some high values of the second
derivative (see “stars” in Fig. 8.9). It is visible the change in dV/dt slope which
occurred on April 23 (see “triangles” in Fig. 8.9). Probably, this can be explained
by the fact that small shops were opened in Austria after April 14, 2020. After some
incubation period, the epidemic dynamics has changed. In May and June, the
average daily numbers of new cases were rather low in comparison with the highest
level in late March. But situation changed in late June (probably due to quarantine
weakening and changes in social behavior).
We have used the period T c : March 28–April 10 to calculate prediction 6 and
have obtained the very high value of relative accuracy e = 6.6% (see Table 6.12).
The previous predictions (presented in Sect. 6.4) yielded higher errors. Probably,
difference between the numbers of registered cases and real ones was larger before
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
121
the corresponding average value of dV/dt can be estimated with the use of accumulated numbers of cases 153356 (June 17) and 155256 (June 23). The result—
316.7 new cases per day—is lower than in Spain and Italy, but the theory yields
much lower figure. According to (8.6) and Table 6.14(prediction 2), dV=dt ! 1:1.
As in the cases of Spain and Italy, the much higher real number of new cases
testifies that quarantine weakening and changes in social behavior after the period
T c caused many additional COVID-19 cases and can be the reason of a new severe
wave in September–October 2020, visible in Fig. 8.7.
In German reports for WHO, there were six pairs of days with the same accumulated number of cases (April 29–30; June 17–18; June 30–July 1; July 12–13,
25–26, 28–29). These peculiarities cased some high values of the second derivative
(see “stars” in Fig. 8.8). Neglecting them, we can see a monotonic decrease in the
daily number of cases in April, May and early June (see “triangles” in Fig. 8.8). It
means that during this rather long period, there were no visible changes in epidemic
dynamics. But situation changed after mid-June probably due to quarantine
weakening and changes in social behavior.
We have used the period T c : April 9–29, to calculate the second prediction for
Germany and have obtained the value of relative accuracy e = 16.5% (see
Table 6.15). The predicted value of t final (August 4) corresponds to the period with
increasing average daily numbers of new cases. It means that next epidemic wave/
waves started in Germany before the finishing the first one. As of August 4, the
average value of dV/dt can be estimated with the use of accumulated numbers of
cases 206 926 (July 28) and 218 519 (August 11). The result is 828 new cases per
day is much higher than in Spain, Italy and France. According to (8.6) and
Table 6.15 (prediction 2), dV=dt ! 0:661. As in the cases of other EU countries,
the much higher real number of new cases testifies that quarantine weakening and
changes in social behavior after the period T c caused many additional COVID-19
cases and can be the reason of a new severe wave in October 2020, visible in
Fig. 8.8.
The number of cases in Austria corresponding May 5 is lower than for the
previous day. There is also the pair of days with the same accumulated number of
cases (July 20–21). These peculiarities cased some high values of the second
derivative (see “stars” in Fig. 8.9). It is visible the change in dV/dt slope which
occurred on April 23 (see “triangles” in Fig. 8.9). Probably, this can be explained
by the fact that small shops were opened in Austria after April 14, 2020. After some
incubation period, the epidemic dynamics has changed. In May and June, the
average daily numbers of new cases were rather low in comparison with the highest
level in late March. But situation changed in late June (probably due to quarantine
weakening and changes in social behavior).
We have used the period T c : March 28–April 10 to calculate prediction 6 and
have obtained the very high value of relative accuracy e = 6.6% (see Table 6.12).
The previous predictions (presented in Sect. 6.4) yielded higher errors. Probably,
difference between the numbers of registered cases and real ones was larger before
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
121