this period. The predicted value of t final (May 18) corresponds to the period with
decreasing values of dV/dt. It means that next epidemic waves (in July, August,
September and October; visible in Fig. 8.9) started in Austria after finishing the first
one. As of May 18, the average value of dV/dt can be estimated with the use of
accumulated numbers of cases 15874 (May 11) and 16459 (May 25). The result—
41.8 new cases per day—is the lowest among all considered EU countries.
According to (8.6) and Table 6.12 (prediction 6), dV=dt ! 1:156. As in other EU
countries, the much higher real number of new cases testifies that quarantine
weakening and changes in social behavior after the period T c caused many additional COVID-19 cases and new epidemic waves in Austria.
It is very interesting to compare the dynamics of the pandemic in Sweden, where
no total lockdown was introduced (in comparison with other European countries,
where it was used and quarantine restrictions were much severe). There are some
irregularities in the reported number of accumulated cases in Sweden. There were
no increase in V j figures in periods (June 18–21, 26–28; July 3–5, 9–12, 17–19, 24–
26; August 1–2, 7–9, and 14–15). The w i value corresponding to August 29 is less
than to August 22. These irregularities decrease the accuracy of calculations with
the use of formulas (8.2)–(8.5). But even before mid-June, the epidemic dynamics
significantly differs from the situation in other EU countries, the UK and Ukraine
(compare Fig. 8.10 with Figs. 8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7 and 8.9). For example, the
values of the second derivative (“stars”) are very random in the case of Sweden. In
the above-mentioned countries, they were mostly positive after the epidemic outbreak and then became mostly negative. A similar nature of the second derivatives
is characteristic of USA (see Fig. 8.4).
The minimum of the average daily number of new cases (dV/dt = 188) was
achieved in Sweden only on July 24, 2020 (later than in other EU countries,
compare “triangles” in Figs. 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9 and 8.10). The increase of this
number in September and October in Sweden was not as rapid as in other EU
countries (compare “triangles” in Figs. 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9 and 8.10). To estimate
the efficiency of Swedish strategy, we can compare the number of accumulated
cases per one million of population. As of September 26, 2020, this figure in
Sweden was 9,003 [86]. Comparison with the values presented in Table 7.4 shows
that higher levels were only in the USA, Moldova and Spain. But as of October 17,
2020, higher numbers of cases per capita were also in France (13,298) and the UK
(10,642) (in comparison with 10,219 in Sweden). It must be noted that some other
EU (countries Belgium, the Netherlands, Czechia, Luxemburg) had higher levels of
cases per capita, and the levels in Montenegro, Andorra and San Marino were more
than twice higher. Therefore, final conclusions about the success of the Swedish
strategy can be made only after the COVID-19 pandemic completion.
We did not notice any evident inaccuracies in the data provided by South Korea
to the WHO (unlike some of the other countries analyzed above). Therefore,
fluctuations in the values of the first and second derivative (see “triangles” and
“stars” in Fig. 8.11) can be interpreted as consequences of changes in the epidemic
122
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic
decreasing values of dV/dt. It means that next epidemic waves (in July, August,
September and October; visible in Fig. 8.9) started in Austria after finishing the first
one. As of May 18, the average value of dV/dt can be estimated with the use of
accumulated numbers of cases 15874 (May 11) and 16459 (May 25). The result—
41.8 new cases per day—is the lowest among all considered EU countries.
According to (8.6) and Table 6.12 (prediction 6), dV=dt ! 1:156. As in other EU
countries, the much higher real number of new cases testifies that quarantine
weakening and changes in social behavior after the period T c caused many additional COVID-19 cases and new epidemic waves in Austria.
It is very interesting to compare the dynamics of the pandemic in Sweden, where
no total lockdown was introduced (in comparison with other European countries,
where it was used and quarantine restrictions were much severe). There are some
irregularities in the reported number of accumulated cases in Sweden. There were
no increase in V j figures in periods (June 18–21, 26–28; July 3–5, 9–12, 17–19, 24–
26; August 1–2, 7–9, and 14–15). The w i value corresponding to August 29 is less
than to August 22. These irregularities decrease the accuracy of calculations with
the use of formulas (8.2)–(8.5). But even before mid-June, the epidemic dynamics
significantly differs from the situation in other EU countries, the UK and Ukraine
(compare Fig. 8.10 with Figs. 8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7 and 8.9). For example, the
values of the second derivative (“stars”) are very random in the case of Sweden. In
the above-mentioned countries, they were mostly positive after the epidemic outbreak and then became mostly negative. A similar nature of the second derivatives
is characteristic of USA (see Fig. 8.4).
The minimum of the average daily number of new cases (dV/dt = 188) was
achieved in Sweden only on July 24, 2020 (later than in other EU countries,
compare “triangles” in Figs. 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9 and 8.10). The increase of this
number in September and October in Sweden was not as rapid as in other EU
countries (compare “triangles” in Figs. 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.8, 8.9 and 8.10). To estimate
the efficiency of Swedish strategy, we can compare the number of accumulated
cases per one million of population. As of September 26, 2020, this figure in
Sweden was 9,003 [86]. Comparison with the values presented in Table 7.4 shows
that higher levels were only in the USA, Moldova and Spain. But as of October 17,
2020, higher numbers of cases per capita were also in France (13,298) and the UK
(10,642) (in comparison with 10,219 in Sweden). It must be noted that some other
EU (countries Belgium, the Netherlands, Czechia, Luxemburg) had higher levels of
cases per capita, and the levels in Montenegro, Andorra and San Marino were more
than twice higher. Therefore, final conclusions about the success of the Swedish
strategy can be made only after the COVID-19 pandemic completion.
We did not notice any evident inaccuracies in the data provided by South Korea
to the WHO (unlike some of the other countries analyzed above). Therefore,
fluctuations in the values of the first and second derivative (see “triangles” and
“stars” in Fig. 8.11) can be interpreted as consequences of changes in the epidemic
122
8 Identification of the New Waves of the COVID-19 Pandemic