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22 Long-Term Public Health, Economic, and Societal Concerns
When they get off the bus near their office they get a breakfast sandwich from the
food cart halfway between the bus stop and their office building, eating it as they
walk. For their coffee break perhaps they return to the food cart, and there are a
half-dozen places they alternate between for lunch. Their routine includes their local
grocery store, another half-dozen or so places where they eat dinner on the weekends,
a pub, and so forth. Most of us have some sort of a routine that we follow—a limited
set of places where we shop, eat, drink, and socialize.
Now consider this same person in the aftermath of a radiological attack that leaves
their office, food cart, and workplace inside the Hot Zone and in which the plume
spreads as far as their home neighborhood. The local businesses near the office and
near home will be forced to close for a time, our worker will have to move to a new
place, as will the business at which they work. They will develop a new routine that
includes different stores, different eateries, different … everything. Unless they are
insured or supported by loans or grants many of these places will go out of business;
even with some form of support, though, their customers cannot return until the area
has been remediated and reoccupied. But by that time, their former customers will all
have fallen into new routines that involve other businesses. Even after the Hot Zone
and contaminated areas are released for reoccupancy, some—perhaps most—of the
former residents will have settled into their new places and might be reluctant to
return, resulting in a loss of rent on the parts of the landlords and other property
owners. Even if the businesses (including office and apartment buildings) are given
financial support, fears of radiation and the new habits their customers have picked
up are likely to delay the economic recovery of the Hot Zone and all the other areas
affected by the attack. Not only that, but each business employs workers (as well
as owners); each business that closes means a loss of livelihood for these people,
changing them from taxpayers to public assistance recipients.
In the case of a radiological attack, the affected is likely to be relatively limited in
extent, and can still involve up to several square kilometers in area. In the event of a
nuclear attack the affected area is likely to be on the order of several tens of square
kilometers with a concomitantly larger population of affected people and businesses.
As the world has seen with the global COVID-19 pandemic, local businesses can
suffer greatly when they are cut off from their customers and it is not unlikely that
the same would happen in the Hot Zone and other affected areas in the aftermath of
a radiological or nuclear attack.
It is also important to realize that remediation and reoccupancy takes time, and
during that time it is entirely possible that the businesses that do not shut their doors
will simply relocate elsewhere with their former places of business remaining vacant
until someone else can be persuaded to sign a lease. But in the time that passes—
possibly several years or even a few decades—many landlords might have their
banks foreclose on mortgages, themselves going out of business. Without going into
excessive detail, it is easy to see how the economic impact of even a relatively minor
attack can snowball, with the extent of that impact rippling outwards into the larger
community over time. And this is not a purely hypothetical example; this is what
was seen in Lower Manhattan in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks as well
as in other cities subjected to terrorist attacks [14].
22 Long-Term Public Health, Economic, and Societal Concerns
When they get off the bus near their office they get a breakfast sandwich from the
food cart halfway between the bus stop and their office building, eating it as they
walk. For their coffee break perhaps they return to the food cart, and there are a
half-dozen places they alternate between for lunch. Their routine includes their local
grocery store, another half-dozen or so places where they eat dinner on the weekends,
a pub, and so forth. Most of us have some sort of a routine that we follow—a limited
set of places where we shop, eat, drink, and socialize.
Now consider this same person in the aftermath of a radiological attack that leaves
their office, food cart, and workplace inside the Hot Zone and in which the plume
spreads as far as their home neighborhood. The local businesses near the office and
near home will be forced to close for a time, our worker will have to move to a new
place, as will the business at which they work. They will develop a new routine that
includes different stores, different eateries, different … everything. Unless they are
insured or supported by loans or grants many of these places will go out of business;
even with some form of support, though, their customers cannot return until the area
has been remediated and reoccupied. But by that time, their former customers will all
have fallen into new routines that involve other businesses. Even after the Hot Zone
and contaminated areas are released for reoccupancy, some—perhaps most—of the
former residents will have settled into their new places and might be reluctant to
return, resulting in a loss of rent on the parts of the landlords and other property
owners. Even if the businesses (including office and apartment buildings) are given
financial support, fears of radiation and the new habits their customers have picked
up are likely to delay the economic recovery of the Hot Zone and all the other areas
affected by the attack. Not only that, but each business employs workers (as well
as owners); each business that closes means a loss of livelihood for these people,
changing them from taxpayers to public assistance recipients.
In the case of a radiological attack, the affected is likely to be relatively limited in
extent, and can still involve up to several square kilometers in area. In the event of a
nuclear attack the affected area is likely to be on the order of several tens of square
kilometers with a concomitantly larger population of affected people and businesses.
As the world has seen with the global COVID-19 pandemic, local businesses can
suffer greatly when they are cut off from their customers and it is not unlikely that
the same would happen in the Hot Zone and other affected areas in the aftermath of
a radiological or nuclear attack.
It is also important to realize that remediation and reoccupancy takes time, and
during that time it is entirely possible that the businesses that do not shut their doors
will simply relocate elsewhere with their former places of business remaining vacant
until someone else can be persuaded to sign a lease. But in the time that passes—
possibly several years or even a few decades—many landlords might have their
banks foreclose on mortgages, themselves going out of business. Without going into
excessive detail, it is easy to see how the economic impact of even a relatively minor
attack can snowball, with the extent of that impact rippling outwards into the larger
community over time. And this is not a purely hypothetical example; this is what
was seen in Lower Manhattan in the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks as well
as in other cities subjected to terrorist attacks [14].