22.2 Economic Concerns
279
If an attack involves only relatively short-lived radionuclides, such as those used
in medicine, it might be possible to wait for them to decay to stability; as a rough
rule of thumb, in ten half-lives the amount of radioactivity drops by a factor of 1024.
Iodine-131, for example, has a half-life of about 8 days; it will take about three months
to go through ten half-lives of decay. Thus, an area attacked using I-131 could be
considered “off-limits” for three months or more. The economic impact of such an
attack is likely to be much lower than for an attack using long-lived radionuclides (ten
half-lives of Cs-137, for example, is three centuries) because remediation will not be
necessary and because the local businesses will likely be able to weather being shut
down for a few months; at the same time, workers will still be unemployed, and both
workers and business owners are likely to require assistance of some sort to remain
solvent for the period of time until the radionuclide decays to acceptable levels,
with the corresponding economic cost. Even an attack using a relatively short-lived
radionuclide can lead to a relatively large area being placed “off-limits” for weeks
or months and can cost society tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in lost wages,
lost business, lost tax revenues, and long-term loss of tourism and related business.
22.3 Psychological and Societal Concerns
If the experiences of Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Goiania, and other radiological
and nuclear accidents are considered then it seems reasonable to assume that a radiological or nuclear attack will have long-lasting impacts on individuals and on society
as a whole.
22.3.1 Psychological Trauma
Twenty years after the accident the World Health Organization conducted a wideranging study of people living in areas affected by the Chernobyl accident, including
those who were evacuated from contaminated areas [19]. In a review of WHO’s
findings, the IAEA summarized the report’s most significant points, including several
relevant to this section [18].
• Poverty, “lifestyle” diseases now rampant in the former Soviet Union and mental
health problems pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation
exposure.
• Relocation proved a “deeply traumatic experience” for some 350,000 people
moved out of the affected areas. Although 116 000 were moved from the most
heavily impacted area immediately after the accident, later relocations did little
to reduce radiation exposure.
• Persistent myths and misperceptions about the threat of radiation have resulted
in “paralyzing fatalism” among residents of affected areas.
279
If an attack involves only relatively short-lived radionuclides, such as those used
in medicine, it might be possible to wait for them to decay to stability; as a rough
rule of thumb, in ten half-lives the amount of radioactivity drops by a factor of 1024.
Iodine-131, for example, has a half-life of about 8 days; it will take about three months
to go through ten half-lives of decay. Thus, an area attacked using I-131 could be
considered “off-limits” for three months or more. The economic impact of such an
attack is likely to be much lower than for an attack using long-lived radionuclides (ten
half-lives of Cs-137, for example, is three centuries) because remediation will not be
necessary and because the local businesses will likely be able to weather being shut
down for a few months; at the same time, workers will still be unemployed, and both
workers and business owners are likely to require assistance of some sort to remain
solvent for the period of time until the radionuclide decays to acceptable levels,
with the corresponding economic cost. Even an attack using a relatively short-lived
radionuclide can lead to a relatively large area being placed “off-limits” for weeks
or months and can cost society tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in lost wages,
lost business, lost tax revenues, and long-term loss of tourism and related business.
22.3 Psychological and Societal Concerns
If the experiences of Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, Goiania, and other radiological
and nuclear accidents are considered then it seems reasonable to assume that a radiological or nuclear attack will have long-lasting impacts on individuals and on society
as a whole.
22.3.1 Psychological Trauma
Twenty years after the accident the World Health Organization conducted a wideranging study of people living in areas affected by the Chernobyl accident, including
those who were evacuated from contaminated areas [19]. In a review of WHO’s
findings, the IAEA summarized the report’s most significant points, including several
relevant to this section [18].
• Poverty, “lifestyle” diseases now rampant in the former Soviet Union and mental
health problems pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation
exposure.
• Relocation proved a “deeply traumatic experience” for some 350,000 people
moved out of the affected areas. Although 116 000 were moved from the most
heavily impacted area immediately after the accident, later relocations did little
to reduce radiation exposure.
• Persistent myths and misperceptions about the threat of radiation have resulted
in “paralyzing fatalism” among residents of affected areas.