22.2 Economic Concerns
277
• The cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were mentioned earlier; there is
no way to know in advance if another large-scale terrorist attack would lead to
another war, to multiple wars, or no war at all.
• The September 11, 2001 attacks led to large-scale changes in the American
government; we cannot predict whether or not a future attack would lead to a
similar set of changes.
• Any attack involving weapons of mass destruction would likely cause large-scale
societal disruption, but the magnitude and economic cost of this disruption cannot
be predicted.
• The September 11 attacks resulted in the cessation of all air travel within the
United States and between the US and the rest of the world for more than two
days and caused a roughly 30% reduction in air travel within the US during the
month of September [9]; we cannot predict the impact of a different attack on a
different date using different weapons and tactics.
• The September 11 attacks led to the creation of new capabilities within all levels
of government in the United States, including military, law enforcement, medical,
and other response agencies. However, this capability already exists and would
not need to be created again (although existing capabilities might be augmented).
These lists are unlikely to be exhaustive, but they also become more difficult to
predict or to quantify. As one example; the value of a lost human life was determined
in 2005 for American citizens [16], but is that value appropriate for citizens of other
nations nearly two decades later? And, of course, this assumes that we can predict
the numbers of lives that would be lost and the nations in which these losses would
occur in the event of one or more hypothetical wars in undetermined locations at an
uncertain time in the future.
That being said, in seems reasonable to assume that, in addition to causing more
damage and a higher economic cost, a nuclear attack would likely cause a more
dramatic impact in the nation attacked and overseas. For example, if nuclear forensic
techniques are able to identify the nation in which the fissionable material was
produced it is not unreasonable to assume that this nation would be held responsible in part or in whole for the attack and its aftermath. This is likely to lead to
a retaliation that could include bombing, invasion, regional war, or a more general
war. A radiological attack, on the other hand, being far less deadly and causing much
less damage, might lead to actions more analogous to the aftermath of the attacks
on September 11, 2001 (e.g. a more localized war or series of attacks by the nation
that was attacked and its allies against those found to be responsible for the terrorist
attack).
22.2.1 Economic Impact on the Neighborhood(s) Attacked
Consider a person who has a daily routine; on their way to work they board a bus at
the neighborhood bus stop after picking up a cup of coffee at the local delicatessen.
277
• The cost of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were mentioned earlier; there is
no way to know in advance if another large-scale terrorist attack would lead to
another war, to multiple wars, or no war at all.
• The September 11, 2001 attacks led to large-scale changes in the American
government; we cannot predict whether or not a future attack would lead to a
similar set of changes.
• Any attack involving weapons of mass destruction would likely cause large-scale
societal disruption, but the magnitude and economic cost of this disruption cannot
be predicted.
• The September 11 attacks resulted in the cessation of all air travel within the
United States and between the US and the rest of the world for more than two
days and caused a roughly 30% reduction in air travel within the US during the
month of September [9]; we cannot predict the impact of a different attack on a
different date using different weapons and tactics.
• The September 11 attacks led to the creation of new capabilities within all levels
of government in the United States, including military, law enforcement, medical,
and other response agencies. However, this capability already exists and would
not need to be created again (although existing capabilities might be augmented).
These lists are unlikely to be exhaustive, but they also become more difficult to
predict or to quantify. As one example; the value of a lost human life was determined
in 2005 for American citizens [16], but is that value appropriate for citizens of other
nations nearly two decades later? And, of course, this assumes that we can predict
the numbers of lives that would be lost and the nations in which these losses would
occur in the event of one or more hypothetical wars in undetermined locations at an
uncertain time in the future.
That being said, in seems reasonable to assume that, in addition to causing more
damage and a higher economic cost, a nuclear attack would likely cause a more
dramatic impact in the nation attacked and overseas. For example, if nuclear forensic
techniques are able to identify the nation in which the fissionable material was
produced it is not unreasonable to assume that this nation would be held responsible in part or in whole for the attack and its aftermath. This is likely to lead to
a retaliation that could include bombing, invasion, regional war, or a more general
war. A radiological attack, on the other hand, being far less deadly and causing much
less damage, might lead to actions more analogous to the aftermath of the attacks
on September 11, 2001 (e.g. a more localized war or series of attacks by the nation
that was attacked and its allies against those found to be responsible for the terrorist
attack).
22.2.1 Economic Impact on the Neighborhood(s) Attacked
Consider a person who has a daily routine; on their way to work they board a bus at
the neighborhood bus stop after picking up a cup of coffee at the local delicatessen.