242
19 Additional Considerations When Responding to a Nuclear Attack
will also be the need to get those who have lost heating or air conditioning to safe
locations.
So, for a number of reasons both radiological and non-radiological it might be
necessary to evacuate several hundred thousand people from the area. If the city
is also affected by other issues—loss of water, prolonged loss of electrical power,
inability to bring in food and supplies, and so forth—then it might be necessary to
evacuate several million people in the first few weeks following an attack.
This means that there are multiple populations that might require evacuation, with
overlapping needs and different time constraints.
Those living in close proximity to the site of the explosion are most likely to
be suffering from injuries, to have lost utilities, to be in damaged buildings, to be
freezing (or sweltering) in extreme weather, to be unable to fill their prescriptions,
and so forth. They are also likely to have received the highest radiation exposure
from the explosion. For those who are outside of the fallout plume (up to 75%)
the radiation exposure will end less than one second after the detonation; for those
who are also downwind of the detonation the exposure will continue until they are
evacuated.
Those living more than a few to several kilometers from the scene of the explosion
are likely to be outside of the areas affected by blast, fire, and prompt radiation from
the explosion; unless they are within the plume’s footprint they are not likely to
be directly or immediately affected by the attack, although they can certainly be
affected by the logistical issues discussed earlier as well as EMP effects in the areas
closest to the explosion. In fact, for those who live, say, fifteen kilometers from the
explosion and who are not within the footprint of the plume, there might be little to
no immediate impact, and possibly even little impact as time goes on—while just a
few kilometers away radiation dose rates in the plume might be dangerously high.
Evacuating people from non-radiological events is common; humanity has
become skilled at evacuating people following any number of natural disasters as well
as terrorist attacks, urban disasters (e.g. building collapse, steam line ruptures, etc.),
and so forth. Evacuating people from nuclear disasters (e.g. Chernobyl, Fukushima)
is very uncommon, but it is a process that has been well thought-out.
In 2014, Michael Dillon, a scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory published an interesting study examining the optimal amount of time to shelter
following a nuclear detonation [2]. As a part of his study Dillon summarized eight
previous studies in this area, noting factors affecting the optimal sheltering time, the
optimal sheltering time for those in poor shelters, and the optimal sheltering time for
those in good shelters. Factors Dillon identified as affecting sheltering time in these
various papers included:
• Shelter quality (the protection factor provided by the shelter)
• Knowledge of fallout pattern
• Delay until evacuation is possible
• Distance from detonation
• Outdoor radiation dose rate
• Other hazards (e.g. fire)
19 Additional Considerations When Responding to a Nuclear Attack
will also be the need to get those who have lost heating or air conditioning to safe
locations.
So, for a number of reasons both radiological and non-radiological it might be
necessary to evacuate several hundred thousand people from the area. If the city
is also affected by other issues—loss of water, prolonged loss of electrical power,
inability to bring in food and supplies, and so forth—then it might be necessary to
evacuate several million people in the first few weeks following an attack.
This means that there are multiple populations that might require evacuation, with
overlapping needs and different time constraints.
Those living in close proximity to the site of the explosion are most likely to
be suffering from injuries, to have lost utilities, to be in damaged buildings, to be
freezing (or sweltering) in extreme weather, to be unable to fill their prescriptions,
and so forth. They are also likely to have received the highest radiation exposure
from the explosion. For those who are outside of the fallout plume (up to 75%)
the radiation exposure will end less than one second after the detonation; for those
who are also downwind of the detonation the exposure will continue until they are
evacuated.
Those living more than a few to several kilometers from the scene of the explosion
are likely to be outside of the areas affected by blast, fire, and prompt radiation from
the explosion; unless they are within the plume’s footprint they are not likely to
be directly or immediately affected by the attack, although they can certainly be
affected by the logistical issues discussed earlier as well as EMP effects in the areas
closest to the explosion. In fact, for those who live, say, fifteen kilometers from the
explosion and who are not within the footprint of the plume, there might be little to
no immediate impact, and possibly even little impact as time goes on—while just a
few kilometers away radiation dose rates in the plume might be dangerously high.
Evacuating people from non-radiological events is common; humanity has
become skilled at evacuating people following any number of natural disasters as well
as terrorist attacks, urban disasters (e.g. building collapse, steam line ruptures, etc.),
and so forth. Evacuating people from nuclear disasters (e.g. Chernobyl, Fukushima)
is very uncommon, but it is a process that has been well thought-out.
In 2014, Michael Dillon, a scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory published an interesting study examining the optimal amount of time to shelter
following a nuclear detonation [2]. As a part of his study Dillon summarized eight
previous studies in this area, noting factors affecting the optimal sheltering time, the
optimal sheltering time for those in poor shelters, and the optimal sheltering time for
those in good shelters. Factors Dillon identified as affecting sheltering time in these
various papers included:
• Shelter quality (the protection factor provided by the shelter)
• Knowledge of fallout pattern
• Delay until evacuation is possible
• Distance from detonation
• Outdoor radiation dose rate
• Other hazards (e.g. fire)