170
S. Kosai and E. Yamasue
the situation of ore grade, this present study quantitatively presented the influence
of ore grade transition on the overall TMR calculation. Although this study assumes
that the ore grade is linearly declined, an application of other models such as an
exponential model would result in the greater increase in TMR-related values.
11.3.3 Projection Analysis
Projection of both EW-DMI and EW-TMR under the 1st classification is presented
in Fig. 11.4.
It is projected that DMI will significantly decrease by 40.3% in 2020 and 58.3% in
2030 compared to 1990, respectively. In addition to the historical trend of decreasing
DMI per capita in the course of economic development, the population in Japan
is expected to constantly decrease in coming years, which will lead to the great
reduction of material input on the DMI basis (The Institute of Energy economics
2015). Meanwhile, compared to 1990, TMR in 2020 will increase by 24.4–27.0%
and in 2030 by 22.9–45.9% compared to 1990, respectively. Under the proposed
models other than the linear model, the material input on a TMR basis is projected
to increase from 2020 to 2030 in spite of population decrease.
The potential range of weights on the TMR basis under the 2nd classification
in 2020 and 2030 are presented in Fig. 11.5. It is projected that both imported
resources and imported products increase from 2013 to 2030 and the domestic
resources decrease, irrespective of the potential range. The potential domestic cycled
resources in 2030 are forecasted to remain the same as 2013 or significantly decrease
from 2013.
In particular, the steam coal, hard coal, liquefied natural gas and copper ore in the
imported resources and for electrical appliances in the imported products is projected
to exponentially increase with high correlation. The demand side management for
these categories has to be carefully taken into account.
Fig. 11.4 Projection of both EW-DMI and EW-TMR under the 1st classification
S. Kosai and E. Yamasue
the situation of ore grade, this present study quantitatively presented the influence
of ore grade transition on the overall TMR calculation. Although this study assumes
that the ore grade is linearly declined, an application of other models such as an
exponential model would result in the greater increase in TMR-related values.
11.3.3 Projection Analysis
Projection of both EW-DMI and EW-TMR under the 1st classification is presented
in Fig. 11.4.
It is projected that DMI will significantly decrease by 40.3% in 2020 and 58.3% in
2030 compared to 1990, respectively. In addition to the historical trend of decreasing
DMI per capita in the course of economic development, the population in Japan
is expected to constantly decrease in coming years, which will lead to the great
reduction of material input on the DMI basis (The Institute of Energy economics
2015). Meanwhile, compared to 1990, TMR in 2020 will increase by 24.4–27.0%
and in 2030 by 22.9–45.9% compared to 1990, respectively. Under the proposed
models other than the linear model, the material input on a TMR basis is projected
to increase from 2020 to 2030 in spite of population decrease.
The potential range of weights on the TMR basis under the 2nd classification
in 2020 and 2030 are presented in Fig. 11.5. It is projected that both imported
resources and imported products increase from 2013 to 2030 and the domestic
resources decrease, irrespective of the potential range. The potential domestic cycled
resources in 2030 are forecasted to remain the same as 2013 or significantly decrease
from 2013.
In particular, the steam coal, hard coal, liquefied natural gas and copper ore in the
imported resources and for electrical appliances in the imported products is projected
to exponentially increase with high correlation. The demand side management for
these categories has to be carefully taken into account.
Fig. 11.4 Projection of both EW-DMI and EW-TMR under the 1st classification