reduced. This is mainly because the military aircraft moves clockwise, the time to reach
one side of the route is relatively short, and it is less affected by the omnidirectional
wind. The deviation is mainly due to the pilot’s operational error, and if the starting
point of the turn is closer to the route, the less likely the military aircraft is to deviate
from the training airspace due to pilot operational errors;
From S5 to S8, that is, clockwise from the positive X-axis direction to the negative
X-axis direction, the collision probability gradually increases. The probability of collision is mainly affected by the pilot’s operational error. But each point is affected by
the omnidirectional wind. For example, points S3 and S7 at both positive and negative
sides of the Y-axis are affected by the pilot’s operational error. However, the path from
Fig. 4. Civil aircraft lateral deviation
Table 2. Military and civil aircraft collision probability without interval margin
Starting points
GERh
N ay_s
(Times/hour)
N ay_r
(Times/hour)
N ay_t
(Times/hour)
S 1 ðÀR 0 ; 0Þ
9.56Â10
−05
2.94Â10
−08
2.96Â10
−08
5.90Â10
−08
S 2 À
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0 ;
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0
8.38Â10
−05
2.58Â10
−08
2.60Â10
−08
5.18Â10
−08
S 3 ð0; R 0 Þ
7.30Â10
−05
2.25Â10
−08
2.26Â10
−08
4.51Â10
−08
S 4
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0 ;
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0
6.34Â10
−05
1.94Â10
−08
1.95Â10
−08
3.90Â10
−08
S 5 ðR 0 ; 0Þ
5.45Â10
−05
1.68Â10
−08
1.69Â10
−08
3.37Â10
−08
S 6
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0 ; À
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0
1.05Â10
−04
3.22Â10
−08
3.24Â10
−08
6.45Â10
−08
S 7 ð0; ÀR 0 Þ
1.25Â10
−04
3.83Â10
−08
3.86Â10
−08
7.69Â10
−08
S 8 À
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0 ; À
ffiffi
2
p
2 R 0
1.14Â10
−04
3.51Â10
−08
3.53Â10
−08
7.05Â10
−08
84
G. Zhao et al.