zero. From this, the frequency of the lateral separation loss of the military and civil
aviation aircraft is GERh = 8.38 Â 10
−05 .
Considering the two cases of the same direction and reverse flight of military and
civil aircraft, respectively, it is assumed that the aircraft with the same direction and
reverse flight within 2L distance has E(O) = 0.61, E(S) = 0.01 pairs. Put GERh and the
above parameters into Eq. 3. It is calculated that the collision probability of the same
direction flight N ay_s is 2.58Â10
−08 , the collision probability of reverse flight N ay_r is
2.60 Â 10
−08 , and the total collision probability N ay_t is 5.18 Â 10
−08 . Take eight
different circling starting points and calculate their collision probability, respectively
(Table 2).
From S1 to S5, that is, the starting point of the circling clockwise from the negative
X-axis direction to the positive X-axis direction, the collision probability is gradually
Table 1. Lateral collision probability simulation parameter
Parameters
Value
Parameters
Value
E (S)
0.61
k mz (m)
24.1
E (O)
0.01
k jx (m)
15.6
V (m/s)
250
k jy (m)
9.45
c (°)
45
k jz (m)
5.09
r V
15
U s ðm=sÞ
3
r c
2
U o ðm=sÞ
497
P z ð0Þ
0.5
V s or V o ðm=sÞ
5.23
L (km)
10
W s or W o ðm=sÞ
0.58
k mx (m)
72.8
b
0.054
k my (m)
79.8
Fig. 3. Military aircraft lateral deviation
Risk Analysis of Lateral Collision of Military and Civil …
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