182 Alexandros Nikas et al.
this context, it is necessary to carefully examine the risks and uncertainties before
reviewing and redesigning the strategies to contribute to a sustainable transition
pathway in both the near and the longer term.
The aim of this chapter, therefore, is to discuss underlying uncertainties and
risks threatening the transition to an energy- efficient Greek economy. We focus
mainly on the built environment yet with some implications for transportation
and power generation. Such a transition prospectively looks at a future Greek
building stock consisting of near- zero-energy buildings in the residential,
private, and public sectors, with autonomy- oriented infrastructure, based on
decentralised power (micro-)generation and electricity storage technologies.
Acknowledging their capacity to help identify the strengths and weaknesses of
current and future policy frameworks (Nikas et al., 2017), this discussion is
carried out from a stakeholders’ point of view, focusing on the risk and uncertainty dimension. This includes the potential negative effects of these strategies
as well as the perceived barriers that may hinder the successful uptake of energy
efficiency measures, both in the short and longer term.
The following section features a discussion of the context of the study, highlighting the uncertain environment characterising the Greek case. Then, the
immediate implementation risks that jeopardise effective uptake of near- term
policy instruments are discussed, followed by an analysis of how stakeholders
perceive both implementation and consequential risks associated with a transition over the longer term. Finally, the conclusions of the chapter are presented,
in addition to the limitations and future prospects of this study.
Research process and methods
For the purposes of exploring policy strategies for meeting near- term energy efficiency targets, the most critical implementation risks were identified in a
meeting with experts from the Ministry of Environment and Energy, during
which the above uncertainties were extensively discussed. Subsequently, a
number of policy instruments found in the latest National Energy Efficiency
Action Plans (NEEAPs) of Greece were evaluated by means of a multi- criteria
group decision- making (MCGDM) methodology. In a series of interviews, seven
stakeholders from the ministry were asked to assess the vulnerability of each of
the policy measures against the identified risks and, based on their input, the
MACE- DSS tool (Nikas et al., 2018) was used to rank the policy instruments in
terms of risk vulnerability. This approach, (similarly to Doukas, Karakosta, and
Psarras, 2009), gave us a good overview of how key experts from the ministry
view the proposed measures, in respect to the actual capacity of the country to
implement them. The analysis was used to complement a portfolio analysis
(PA) approach for determining the optimal near- term policy mix, the findings
of which are also discussed.
When considering a low- carbon transition over the longer term, experts are
able to identify a different, richer set of risks. From this perspective, a policy
strategy aiming to promote a pathway is not only prone to implementation risks
this context, it is necessary to carefully examine the risks and uncertainties before
reviewing and redesigning the strategies to contribute to a sustainable transition
pathway in both the near and the longer term.
The aim of this chapter, therefore, is to discuss underlying uncertainties and
risks threatening the transition to an energy- efficient Greek economy. We focus
mainly on the built environment yet with some implications for transportation
and power generation. Such a transition prospectively looks at a future Greek
building stock consisting of near- zero-energy buildings in the residential,
private, and public sectors, with autonomy- oriented infrastructure, based on
decentralised power (micro-)generation and electricity storage technologies.
Acknowledging their capacity to help identify the strengths and weaknesses of
current and future policy frameworks (Nikas et al., 2017), this discussion is
carried out from a stakeholders’ point of view, focusing on the risk and uncertainty dimension. This includes the potential negative effects of these strategies
as well as the perceived barriers that may hinder the successful uptake of energy
efficiency measures, both in the short and longer term.
The following section features a discussion of the context of the study, highlighting the uncertain environment characterising the Greek case. Then, the
immediate implementation risks that jeopardise effective uptake of near- term
policy instruments are discussed, followed by an analysis of how stakeholders
perceive both implementation and consequential risks associated with a transition over the longer term. Finally, the conclusions of the chapter are presented,
in addition to the limitations and future prospects of this study.
Research process and methods
For the purposes of exploring policy strategies for meeting near- term energy efficiency targets, the most critical implementation risks were identified in a
meeting with experts from the Ministry of Environment and Energy, during
which the above uncertainties were extensively discussed. Subsequently, a
number of policy instruments found in the latest National Energy Efficiency
Action Plans (NEEAPs) of Greece were evaluated by means of a multi- criteria
group decision- making (MCGDM) methodology. In a series of interviews, seven
stakeholders from the ministry were asked to assess the vulnerability of each of
the policy measures against the identified risks and, based on their input, the
MACE- DSS tool (Nikas et al., 2018) was used to rank the policy instruments in
terms of risk vulnerability. This approach, (similarly to Doukas, Karakosta, and
Psarras, 2009), gave us a good overview of how key experts from the ministry
view the proposed measures, in respect to the actual capacity of the country to
implement them. The analysis was used to complement a portfolio analysis
(PA) approach for determining the optimal near- term policy mix, the findings
of which are also discussed.
When considering a low- carbon transition over the longer term, experts are
able to identify a different, richer set of risks. From this perspective, a policy
strategy aiming to promote a pathway is not only prone to implementation risks