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target of 18% (Directive 2009/28/EC), which has since been amended to 20%
in the more ambitious Greek legislation (Law 3851/2010). This has implications
for energy efficiency in buildings since various energy- efficient actions are
focused on electricity generation from building- integrated photovoltaics (PVs).
According to the European Commission’s annual progress reports, there is a
significant divergence between the intermediate targets and the actual achieved
savings, resulting from the inadequate implementation of poorly designed previously proposed actions. In fact, the latest official Greek report acknowledges the
socio- technical infeasibility to meet the predefined objectives, with an expected
gap of 35% (1176 kTOE) of the overall energy savings target by 2020 (Ministry
of Environment and Energy, 2017).
It is noteworthy that, despite the reported progress, there exists large potential for improving energy efficiency in the country. The building sector, in particular, has significant room for decarbonisation as 25–30% of the final energy is
consumed in the residential sector (Centre for Renewable Energy Sources and
Saving, 2015). Considering the current building stock has predominantly poor
energy performance, with about six out of ten buildings having been constructed
before 1980 (Hellenic Statistical Authority, 2011), it is consequently in need of
immediate renovations. The same can be said of the transport sector, with a
share in final energy consumption of about 35% during the last decade, according to the International Energy Agency, and a 15- to 20-year old transport fleet
(Tsita and Pilavachi, 2017).
Given this potential, it is evident that current difficulties in delivering on
the national energy- efficiency commitments can, at least in part, be attributed
to the underlying risks and uncertainties that essentially did not allow for the
successful implementation of the policy framework. At the same time, there has
been little provision for potential negative outcomes of relevant policies,
thereby allowing adverse consequences to manifest. For example, despite their
positive impacts (HELAPCO, 2016), policies aimed at further developing the
solar power sector have had detrimental economic side effects (Tselepis, 2015)
and a series of amending regulatory efforts have created an uncertain investment environment in the energy front.
Until recently, the national policy framework on energy efficiency has comprised actions, incentives, and interventions, the design of which had been based
on quantitative modelling exercises. By looking at the inadequacy of this framework, as reported in the latest national energy efficiency action plan (Ministry of
Environment and Energy, 2017), it seems that scientific and policymaking processes have ignored a number of implementation risks and uncertainties. They
have also failed to foresee the manifestation of negative consequences resulting
from the policy framework’s implementation. These risks and uncertainties, if
overlooked, could jeopardise both the national energy efficiency framework
towards 2030 and overall efforts towards long- term decarbonisation. Consequently, the resulting failure to accomplish the near- term energy efficiency
national goals raises questions, not only about the country’s capacity to realise
long- term decarbonisation visions, but also about the existence of such visions. In
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