on the mainland, urbanisation, roadworks, transportation, and modification of natural systems.
Grasslands, mires and bogs are the most threatened habitat types in Europe. The
situation for forests here is much better than in other parts of the world because the
whole area with forest in total has been increasing for many decades.
The threats (Table 2) can be used to create a tool for characterising change
through time at landscape scales with respect to effect size and susceptibility.
Which processes can damage whole landscapes, which can have strong effects,
and which are more or less unimportant? Which ecosystems are affected by natural
processes and which are affected by human activities?
4 Effect Size of Environmental Change in Time
at Landscape Scales
Table 2 combines many of the former considerations (i.e. numbers of threatened
species according to the IUCN Red List (IUCN 2019), results of the Red List of
European Habitats according to Janssen et al. (2016) and Gubbay et al. (2016), and
the consideration of Mucina and Wardell-Johnson (2011). The table can be used as a
simple scheme to characterise changing conditions over time at landscape scales
with respect to the risk for ecosystems and biodiversity.
By giving numbers for each aspect (grid cell), it could also be used to quantify
environmental change in time or to define catastrophes for landscapes. However, the
numbers should be weighted. If, for example, life on an oceanic island is totally
destroyed by a severe volcanic eruption, then the other aspects at that very moment
are of no relevance any more.
This table might also be used as a traffic light with green for low and red for highimpact effects.
5 Conclusion
Environmental conditions can be constant, they can change regularly or the changes
can be strong, sudden, unexpected and represent catastrophes.
The effect size depends not only on the environmental parameters but also on the
adaptability of organisms and the susceptibility of the ecosystem.
To date, a simple quantifying system that would indicate the effect size probability of changing conditions over time has not been developed. Thus, the contribution presented here can only give preliminarily ideas to the discussion.
It would be challenging to have such a tool be comparable to indicator values for
heterogeneity in landscapes (which already exist) to estimate the possible effects
such as loss of biodiversity, or pressure on ecosystems, which are related to
Change: Risks and Predictability
189
Grasslands, mires and bogs are the most threatened habitat types in Europe. The
situation for forests here is much better than in other parts of the world because the
whole area with forest in total has been increasing for many decades.
The threats (Table 2) can be used to create a tool for characterising change
through time at landscape scales with respect to effect size and susceptibility.
Which processes can damage whole landscapes, which can have strong effects,
and which are more or less unimportant? Which ecosystems are affected by natural
processes and which are affected by human activities?
4 Effect Size of Environmental Change in Time
at Landscape Scales
Table 2 combines many of the former considerations (i.e. numbers of threatened
species according to the IUCN Red List (IUCN 2019), results of the Red List of
European Habitats according to Janssen et al. (2016) and Gubbay et al. (2016), and
the consideration of Mucina and Wardell-Johnson (2011). The table can be used as a
simple scheme to characterise changing conditions over time at landscape scales
with respect to the risk for ecosystems and biodiversity.
By giving numbers for each aspect (grid cell), it could also be used to quantify
environmental change in time or to define catastrophes for landscapes. However, the
numbers should be weighted. If, for example, life on an oceanic island is totally
destroyed by a severe volcanic eruption, then the other aspects at that very moment
are of no relevance any more.
This table might also be used as a traffic light with green for low and red for highimpact effects.
5 Conclusion
Environmental conditions can be constant, they can change regularly or the changes
can be strong, sudden, unexpected and represent catastrophes.
The effect size depends not only on the environmental parameters but also on the
adaptability of organisms and the susceptibility of the ecosystem.
To date, a simple quantifying system that would indicate the effect size probability of changing conditions over time has not been developed. Thus, the contribution presented here can only give preliminarily ideas to the discussion.
It would be challenging to have such a tool be comparable to indicator values for
heterogeneity in landscapes (which already exist) to estimate the possible effects
such as loss of biodiversity, or pressure on ecosystems, which are related to
Change: Risks and Predictability
189