19 Mainstreaming Climate Change into Transboundary …
435
strategies have been integrated into water and sanitation management strategies at
the transboundary level. Based on this examination, and using case studies from the
three transboundary basins, recommendations are made to address vulnerability in
regional water policy frameworks.
The Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM) agreement of 2000 was
the first river basin institution to be established in the SADC region among the four
countries (South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, and Namibia). The Limpopo Watercourse Commission (LIMCOM) evolved from the SADC structure and mandate,
but the four economic powers (South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique) have yet to agree on a management plan for the Limpopo River Basin. The
Incomati-Maputo Agreement, ensuring cooperation on the protection and sustainable
utilization of water resources, was reached among South Africa, Mozambique, and
Swaziland in 2002. That was a milestone because it resolved a previously intractable
conflict over water allocation of the Incomati Basin through inclusion of Maputo
in the negotiations. However, neither the agreement (adopted in May 2002, signed
in August 2009 and ratified in February 2010) nor a technical report by the Tripartite Permanent Technical Committee (TPTC) on systems operating rules (drafted in
2010)
1 even mentions climate change.
2 Climate Outlook for Southern Africa
Southern Africa is characterized by a highly variable climate. Francois Engelbrecht
(2018, personal communication) of the CSIR contends that South Africa’s presentday climate is often under the influence of high-pressure systems of the subtropical
high-pressure belt, which causes air to sink over southern Africa, thereby suppressing
thundercloud formations and therefore rainfall. Hence, a large part of South Africa’s
climate is semi-arid. Figure 2 shows key features of the climate system of southern
Africa.
Chapman (2011) observes that climate change will affect different parts of
southern Africa differently. Indeed, climate change model scenarios project that
some areas will become dry, others wet, and others remain uncertain, particularly
in the more distant future. Davis-Reddy and Vincent (2017) assert that the global
mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.85 °C since 1880 and are projected to
increase by 0.3 to 2.5 °C by 2050, relative to the 1985–2005 climatological average.
As it is generally the case, globally, changes in rainfall are harder to detect than
changes in temperature; there is no clear trend in rainfall projections, but higher
variability in rainfall (spatially) is expected. Notwithstanding uncertainty in rainfall
projections, a decrease in rainfall is projected over central southern Africa (e.g.,
1 Additional information in this regard is accessible from the Agreement and the TPTC report by
Hallowes et al. (2010).
435
strategies have been integrated into water and sanitation management strategies at
the transboundary level. Based on this examination, and using case studies from the
three transboundary basins, recommendations are made to address vulnerability in
regional water policy frameworks.
The Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM) agreement of 2000 was
the first river basin institution to be established in the SADC region among the four
countries (South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, and Namibia). The Limpopo Watercourse Commission (LIMCOM) evolved from the SADC structure and mandate,
but the four economic powers (South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique) have yet to agree on a management plan for the Limpopo River Basin. The
Incomati-Maputo Agreement, ensuring cooperation on the protection and sustainable
utilization of water resources, was reached among South Africa, Mozambique, and
Swaziland in 2002. That was a milestone because it resolved a previously intractable
conflict over water allocation of the Incomati Basin through inclusion of Maputo
in the negotiations. However, neither the agreement (adopted in May 2002, signed
in August 2009 and ratified in February 2010) nor a technical report by the Tripartite Permanent Technical Committee (TPTC) on systems operating rules (drafted in
2010)
1 even mentions climate change.
2 Climate Outlook for Southern Africa
Southern Africa is characterized by a highly variable climate. Francois Engelbrecht
(2018, personal communication) of the CSIR contends that South Africa’s presentday climate is often under the influence of high-pressure systems of the subtropical
high-pressure belt, which causes air to sink over southern Africa, thereby suppressing
thundercloud formations and therefore rainfall. Hence, a large part of South Africa’s
climate is semi-arid. Figure 2 shows key features of the climate system of southern
Africa.
Chapman (2011) observes that climate change will affect different parts of
southern Africa differently. Indeed, climate change model scenarios project that
some areas will become dry, others wet, and others remain uncertain, particularly
in the more distant future. Davis-Reddy and Vincent (2017) assert that the global
mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.85 °C since 1880 and are projected to
increase by 0.3 to 2.5 °C by 2050, relative to the 1985–2005 climatological average.
As it is generally the case, globally, changes in rainfall are harder to detect than
changes in temperature; there is no clear trend in rainfall projections, but higher
variability in rainfall (spatially) is expected. Notwithstanding uncertainty in rainfall
projections, a decrease in rainfall is projected over central southern Africa (e.g.,
1 Additional information in this regard is accessible from the Agreement and the TPTC report by
Hallowes et al. (2010).