384
K. M. AbuZeid
11 Conclusion
There is a failure to fulfill the shares of Egypt and Sudan in almost all scenarios. The
largest impact on the annual shares of Egypt (55.5 BCM) and Sudan (18.5 BCM) after
the completion and operation of the GERD is the volume of dead storage (storage up
to the highest level of the turbines), the first filling volume, and the average annual
storage volume, which affects the volume of evaporation losses and seepage. The
cumulative effects of these losses have a great impact on the volume of storage in
the HAD reservoir. The lower the annual average storage of the GERD reservoir, the
less the evaporation and the seepage losses of the GERD and the less the effect on
the downstream Blue Nile flows to Egypt and Sudan. GERD operations will lead to
a decrease in hydropower generated from the HAD due to the operation of the HAD
turbines at a lower average level than the baseline scenario before the construction
of the GERD.
The volume (first filling/minimum operating level) of the GERD has the largest
impact on the cumulative effect of evaporation losses and seepage during operation;
its biggest impact is the reduction of Blue Nile flows to Egypt and Sudan. The
agreement among the three countries on the annual operating rules is as important,
if not more important, than the agreement on the first filling rules. The greatest risk
may occur in the operating period and not in the filling period, so the real impact
of the GERD may occur in the years following the filling and during the operation
period. In the long run, all filling scenarios will converge, and the greatest impact of
the GERD will be during the drought years of low natural flows of the Blue Nile.
Deficit modeling shows that the current shares of Egypt and Sudan, due to GERD,
could be affected and will vary in time according to climate variability impacts on
Blue Nile flows within the year, but may also last for periods ranging from 10 to
20 consecutive years during low-flow years due to climate variability from 1 year to
another. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change
when combined with GERD impacts.
12 Recommendations
It is critical that the official GERD studies, commissioned by the three countries, be
completed promptly so that the parties can agree on the first filling and operating
rules to minimize any negative impacts on Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia must agree on the size of the first filling before consideration of the filling rules. Agreement on the rules of filling must take into account
and coordinate the operating rules. The feasibility of reducing the overall size of
GERD below the current design size of 74 BCM should be considered to enable
operating at low average levels to reduce the negative impacts on Egypt and Sudan
downstream, where the maximum storage capacity is only large enough to absorb
high flows during the high-flood months.
K. M. AbuZeid
11 Conclusion
There is a failure to fulfill the shares of Egypt and Sudan in almost all scenarios. The
largest impact on the annual shares of Egypt (55.5 BCM) and Sudan (18.5 BCM) after
the completion and operation of the GERD is the volume of dead storage (storage up
to the highest level of the turbines), the first filling volume, and the average annual
storage volume, which affects the volume of evaporation losses and seepage. The
cumulative effects of these losses have a great impact on the volume of storage in
the HAD reservoir. The lower the annual average storage of the GERD reservoir, the
less the evaporation and the seepage losses of the GERD and the less the effect on
the downstream Blue Nile flows to Egypt and Sudan. GERD operations will lead to
a decrease in hydropower generated from the HAD due to the operation of the HAD
turbines at a lower average level than the baseline scenario before the construction
of the GERD.
The volume (first filling/minimum operating level) of the GERD has the largest
impact on the cumulative effect of evaporation losses and seepage during operation;
its biggest impact is the reduction of Blue Nile flows to Egypt and Sudan. The
agreement among the three countries on the annual operating rules is as important,
if not more important, than the agreement on the first filling rules. The greatest risk
may occur in the operating period and not in the filling period, so the real impact
of the GERD may occur in the years following the filling and during the operation
period. In the long run, all filling scenarios will converge, and the greatest impact of
the GERD will be during the drought years of low natural flows of the Blue Nile.
Deficit modeling shows that the current shares of Egypt and Sudan, due to GERD,
could be affected and will vary in time according to climate variability impacts on
Blue Nile flows within the year, but may also last for periods ranging from 10 to
20 consecutive years during low-flow years due to climate variability from 1 year to
another. There is a high level of uncertainty regarding the impacts of climate change
when combined with GERD impacts.
12 Recommendations
It is critical that the official GERD studies, commissioned by the three countries, be
completed promptly so that the parties can agree on the first filling and operating
rules to minimize any negative impacts on Egypt and Sudan.
Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia must agree on the size of the first filling before consideration of the filling rules. Agreement on the rules of filling must take into account
and coordinate the operating rules. The feasibility of reducing the overall size of
GERD below the current design size of 74 BCM should be considered to enable
operating at low average levels to reduce the negative impacts on Egypt and Sudan
downstream, where the maximum storage capacity is only large enough to absorb
high flows during the high-flood months.