16 Potential Transboundary Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian …
385
It is recommended that the volume of the first filling of the GERD should be
established at just above the dead storage level, i.e., the lowest storage above which
turbines can operate, estimated at less than 15 BCM. It is important to reduce GERD
storage to the first filling volume at the end of each hydrological year and to discharge
the annual flows to reduce the cumulative impact of evaporation and seepage losses
and to absorb the flows of the next year’s flood.
A comprehensive climate change impact study on the Blue Nile Basin is needed
to reduce the level of uncertainty about the predicted flows, and to assess GERD
impacts on downstream countries in light of climate change impacts.
Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia must agree on the parameters for the first filling,
the operating rules, and the mechanism for coordinating dam management in the
three countries. Among the details that are important to include in the agreement
is Ethiopia’s commitment to limit the use of the GERD reservoir for hydropower
generation as per the Declaration of Principles signed by the heads of states to
ensure water security for the downstream countries. The three countries must agree
to compensation principles that account for the possible negative impacts on Egypt’s
and Sudan’s water shares, rights, existing uses, and hydropower generation from the
HAD in Egypt, as well as other dams in Sudan pursuant to the provisions of the
Declaration of Principles.
References
Abou El-Magd I, Ali E (2012) Estimation of the evaporative losses from reservoir Nasser, Egypt
using optical satellite imagery. National Authority for Remote Sensing & Space Sciences, Suez
University, Article in International Journal of Digital Earth (March)
AbuZeid K (2012) The watercourse/blue water & river basin/green water approach to win-win
solutions in transboundary river basin management. Offi J Arab Water Council 3(1):1–15, July
2012, ISSN 1996-5699
AbuZeid K (2016) Chapter IV: Impacts of the operation of the GERD, “Economic Impacts of
the GERD on Water, Agriculture and Egypt’s National Security”, Center for Environment &
Development for Arab Region & Europe-(CEDARE) & Institute of Research and Strategic Studies
on the Nile Basin Countries (Fayoum University)
AbuZeid K (2017a) Potential impacts of grand ethiopian renaissance dam (GERD) on Egypt &
Sudan. In: Water Resources Program, Centre for Environment and Development Center for the
Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE)
AbuZeid K (2017b) Potential impacts of grand ethiopian renaissance dam on Nile water availability
for Egypt and Sudan. In: 4th Arab Water Forum AWC Shared waters in the Arab Region: potential
transboundary impacts & cooperation opportunities, 27 Nov 2017, Cairo, Egypt
AbuZeid K (2018) Egypt state of the water indicators. Egyptian Water Partnership Workshop, Cairo,
Egypt
Abu-Zeid M (2010) Arab and African water in the twenty first century. El-Tobgy Foundation for
Trading, Printing and Publishing, Cairo, Egypt
Bashar KE, Mustafa MO (2009) Water balance assessment of the roseires reservoir. In: Intermediate
results dissemination workshop, UNESCO, Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (Sudan)
5–6 Feb 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) (2004) Central Directorate for Nile Water
Control Yearly Report, 2003–2004, 44 p
385
It is recommended that the volume of the first filling of the GERD should be
established at just above the dead storage level, i.e., the lowest storage above which
turbines can operate, estimated at less than 15 BCM. It is important to reduce GERD
storage to the first filling volume at the end of each hydrological year and to discharge
the annual flows to reduce the cumulative impact of evaporation and seepage losses
and to absorb the flows of the next year’s flood.
A comprehensive climate change impact study on the Blue Nile Basin is needed
to reduce the level of uncertainty about the predicted flows, and to assess GERD
impacts on downstream countries in light of climate change impacts.
Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia must agree on the parameters for the first filling,
the operating rules, and the mechanism for coordinating dam management in the
three countries. Among the details that are important to include in the agreement
is Ethiopia’s commitment to limit the use of the GERD reservoir for hydropower
generation as per the Declaration of Principles signed by the heads of states to
ensure water security for the downstream countries. The three countries must agree
to compensation principles that account for the possible negative impacts on Egypt’s
and Sudan’s water shares, rights, existing uses, and hydropower generation from the
HAD in Egypt, as well as other dams in Sudan pursuant to the provisions of the
Declaration of Principles.
References
Abou El-Magd I, Ali E (2012) Estimation of the evaporative losses from reservoir Nasser, Egypt
using optical satellite imagery. National Authority for Remote Sensing & Space Sciences, Suez
University, Article in International Journal of Digital Earth (March)
AbuZeid K (2012) The watercourse/blue water & river basin/green water approach to win-win
solutions in transboundary river basin management. Offi J Arab Water Council 3(1):1–15, July
2012, ISSN 1996-5699
AbuZeid K (2016) Chapter IV: Impacts of the operation of the GERD, “Economic Impacts of
the GERD on Water, Agriculture and Egypt’s National Security”, Center for Environment &
Development for Arab Region & Europe-(CEDARE) & Institute of Research and Strategic Studies
on the Nile Basin Countries (Fayoum University)
AbuZeid K (2017a) Potential impacts of grand ethiopian renaissance dam (GERD) on Egypt &
Sudan. In: Water Resources Program, Centre for Environment and Development Center for the
Arab Region and Europe (CEDARE)
AbuZeid K (2017b) Potential impacts of grand ethiopian renaissance dam on Nile water availability
for Egypt and Sudan. In: 4th Arab Water Forum AWC Shared waters in the Arab Region: potential
transboundary impacts & cooperation opportunities, 27 Nov 2017, Cairo, Egypt
AbuZeid K (2018) Egypt state of the water indicators. Egyptian Water Partnership Workshop, Cairo,
Egypt
Abu-Zeid M (2010) Arab and African water in the twenty first century. El-Tobgy Foundation for
Trading, Printing and Publishing, Cairo, Egypt
Bashar KE, Mustafa MO (2009) Water balance assessment of the roseires reservoir. In: Intermediate
results dissemination workshop, UNESCO, Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (Sudan)
5–6 Feb 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) (2004) Central Directorate for Nile Water
Control Yearly Report, 2003–2004, 44 p