376
K. M. AbuZeid
Figure 24 assumes a series of flows at the beginning of the filling period with a
10-year annual average equal to 45 BCM/year (similar to the period from 1973 to
1982), which was a moderate 10-year historical average, and coinciding with a HAD
reservoir level at the beginning of this series at about 175 m (equivalent to HAD
storage of 122 BCM). This scenario assumes annual operation at 62 BCM minimum
storage. Deficit years where the Blue Nile flows through GERD will not be able to
meet the shares of Egypt and Sudan reached about 23 years during the first 20 years
and after 42 years of the series of 105 years of the simulated historical flows used.
Figure 24 also shows an annual deficit ranging from 0.5 BCM to 3 BCM for
each of Egypt and Sudan for a period of 18 years at the beginning of the series and
a period of 3 years after 42 years, with a total deficit of about 122 BCM for both
countries.
7 GERD Operation After Filling During a 10-Year Average
Flow (50 BCM/Year)
Figure 25 assumes a series of flows at the beginning of the filling period with a 10year annual average equal to 50 BCM/year (similar to the period from 1940 to 1949),
which is an average 10-year average flow, and coinciding with a HAD reservoir level
at the beginning of this series at about 160 m (equivalent to HAD storage of 62
BCM). This scenario assumes an annual operation at 15 BCM minimum storage.
Deficit years where the Blue Nile flows through GERD will not be able to meet the
shares of Egypt and Sudan reached about 10 years after 38 years of the series of
105 years of the simulated historical flows used.
Fig. 25 Scenarios: (160) 50 (15)/(6,10)
K. M. AbuZeid
Figure 24 assumes a series of flows at the beginning of the filling period with a
10-year annual average equal to 45 BCM/year (similar to the period from 1973 to
1982), which was a moderate 10-year historical average, and coinciding with a HAD
reservoir level at the beginning of this series at about 175 m (equivalent to HAD
storage of 122 BCM). This scenario assumes annual operation at 62 BCM minimum
storage. Deficit years where the Blue Nile flows through GERD will not be able to
meet the shares of Egypt and Sudan reached about 23 years during the first 20 years
and after 42 years of the series of 105 years of the simulated historical flows used.
Figure 24 also shows an annual deficit ranging from 0.5 BCM to 3 BCM for
each of Egypt and Sudan for a period of 18 years at the beginning of the series and
a period of 3 years after 42 years, with a total deficit of about 122 BCM for both
countries.
7 GERD Operation After Filling During a 10-Year Average
Flow (50 BCM/Year)
Figure 25 assumes a series of flows at the beginning of the filling period with a 10year annual average equal to 50 BCM/year (similar to the period from 1940 to 1949),
which is an average 10-year average flow, and coinciding with a HAD reservoir level
at the beginning of this series at about 160 m (equivalent to HAD storage of 62
BCM). This scenario assumes an annual operation at 15 BCM minimum storage.
Deficit years where the Blue Nile flows through GERD will not be able to meet the
shares of Egypt and Sudan reached about 10 years after 38 years of the series of
105 years of the simulated historical flows used.
Fig. 25 Scenarios: (160) 50 (15)/(6,10)