16 Potential Transboundary Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian …
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Figure 23 assumes a series of flows at the beginning of the filling period with
a 10-year annual average equal to 45 BCM/year (similar to that which occurred in
the period from 1973 to 1982), which was a moderate 10-year historical average,
and coinciding with a HAD reservoir level at the beginning of this series at about
175 m (equivalent to HAD storage of 122 BCM). This scenario assumes the annual
operation at 15 BCM minimum storage. Deficit years of inability of Blue Nile flows
through GERD to meet the shares of Egypt and Sudan reached about 14 years during
the first 17 years of the series of 105 years of the simulated historical flows used.
Figure 23 also shows an annual deficit of about 2.5 BCM for each of Egypt and
Sudan for a period of 8 years, with a total deficit during the first 17 years of about
40 BCM for both countries.
Fig. 23 Scenarios: (175) 45 (15)/(6,10) with deficit in the shares of Egypt and Sudan
Fig. 24 Scenario: (175) 45 (62)/(5) with deficit in the shares of Egypt and Sudan