374
K. M. AbuZeid
Fig. 21 Scenarios: (170) 45 (25)/(6,10)
which was a moderate 10-year average flow, and coinciding with a HAD reservoir
level at the beginning of this series of about 170 m (equivalent to HAD storage of
about 99 BCM). This scenario assumes the annual operation at 25 BCM minimum
storage. Deficit years where the Blue Nile flows through GERD will not be able to
satisfy the shares of Egypt and Sudan, reached about 17 years during the first 25 years
and after 47 years of the series of 105 years of the simulated historical flows used.
Figure 22 shows an annual deficit of about 2.5 BCM for each of Egypt and Sudan
for a period of 12 years, with a total deficit during the first 14 years of about 60 BCM
for both countries.
Fig. 22 Scenarios: (170) 45 (25)/(6,10) with deficit in the shares of Egypt and Sudan