13 Assessment of Hydrological Impacts …
295
Fig. 13 Precipitation biases corrected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Fig. 14 Projected average temperatures of the Diarha basin under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
(RCP4.5) and 12% (RCP8.5), signaling that the warming and decreased precipitation that results from climate change will probably affect the hydrology of the Diarha
watershed (Figs. 14, 15 and 16).
3.4 Evolution of Annual Streamflow and Characteristic Flow
Rates by 2050
The corrected outputs of Regional Climate Models (RCM) were submitted to the
GR4J model to simulate the evolution of Diarha streamflows by 2050. Compared
to the 1961–2012 reference period, the GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-LR and
INM-CM4 models predict a decrease in streamflows of 0.5%, 1.5% and 12.4%,
respectively.
For the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease in precipitation, as well as that of flows, is
more severe. Models predict a decrease in precipitation of 7.6% (GFDL-ESM2G) to
17.2% (INM-CM4). For flows, the same models predict a decrease of 16% to 35%.
The overall average RCP8.5 model predicts a decrease in rainfall of 12%, which
295
Fig. 13 Precipitation biases corrected under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Fig. 14 Projected average temperatures of the Diarha basin under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
(RCP4.5) and 12% (RCP8.5), signaling that the warming and decreased precipitation that results from climate change will probably affect the hydrology of the Diarha
watershed (Figs. 14, 15 and 16).
3.4 Evolution of Annual Streamflow and Characteristic Flow
Rates by 2050
The corrected outputs of Regional Climate Models (RCM) were submitted to the
GR4J model to simulate the evolution of Diarha streamflows by 2050. Compared
to the 1961–2012 reference period, the GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-LR and
INM-CM4 models predict a decrease in streamflows of 0.5%, 1.5% and 12.4%,
respectively.
For the RCP8.5 scenario, the decrease in precipitation, as well as that of flows, is
more severe. Models predict a decrease in precipitation of 7.6% (GFDL-ESM2G) to
17.2% (INM-CM4). For flows, the same models predict a decrease of 16% to 35%.
The overall average RCP8.5 model predicts a decrease in rainfall of 12%, which