The backcasting technique tries to connect the future to the present by
envisioning an acceptable future system state, which is then used as a reference for
tracing pathways back to the present. With proper milestones along those pathways,
short-term challenges can be identified and obstacles on the way can be overcome.
If we think of sustainability as an achievement target, the backcasting method can
help us to determine such a route, as we focus on future objectives that avoid
extrapolating from the present situation with existing constraints.
However, backcasting is precisely what we do when playing chess. Analysis from
a distant future or perspective challenges stakeholders to think on the objectives to
satisfy, in the near future, step by step, rather than focussing on their own direct
interests. As an example (McRae 2010), the pedestrian area in Copenhagen has been
extended from 15,000 square metres in 1962 to 95,000 by 1995. This has not been a
mere formal exercise of creating traffic-free avenues and commercial centres, as may
have occurred in other towns and cities of Europe; rather, the car has been, gradually,
removed from circulation and the equation, such that the two-kilometre-long Stroget
has been transformed into the main artery for accessing a complete grid of pedestrian
blocks, with over 100,000 square metres devoted to walkers.
Forecasting and scenario planning are more familiar techniques to many, but
forecasting can be limited by using models calibrated against past and present
circumstances, which do not deal well with likely complex future situations and
require many assumptions, rendering predictions often simplistic, reductionist and
even absurd. We have seen that infrastructure systems can interact to become very
complex. While forecasting and scenario planning go from the present towards the
future, backcasting comes in the other direction from the future back to present.
Backcasting may be conveniently used for the following problems:
(1) for infrastructure systems or networks which tend to become complicated or
complex.
(2) when major modifications are needed instead of marginal alterations.
(3) when one or several trends dominate.
(4) when externalities are significant.
(5) when there is choice among different possibilities over the course of the long
term planning frame period.
In order to fulfil the backcasting process, it is necessary to
(1) identify a common vision of the future with stakeholders,
(2) examine requirements and analyse them,
(3) identify possible improvement options,
(4) develop paths leading to the vision envisaged,
(5) secure consensus on the paths to be followed.
This is important, if we wish to implement infrastructure and ancillary services
that ensure sustainable development, rather than entail sustainable nuisance!
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5 The Long Term Plan for Infrastructure
envisioning an acceptable future system state, which is then used as a reference for
tracing pathways back to the present. With proper milestones along those pathways,
short-term challenges can be identified and obstacles on the way can be overcome.
If we think of sustainability as an achievement target, the backcasting method can
help us to determine such a route, as we focus on future objectives that avoid
extrapolating from the present situation with existing constraints.
However, backcasting is precisely what we do when playing chess. Analysis from
a distant future or perspective challenges stakeholders to think on the objectives to
satisfy, in the near future, step by step, rather than focussing on their own direct
interests. As an example (McRae 2010), the pedestrian area in Copenhagen has been
extended from 15,000 square metres in 1962 to 95,000 by 1995. This has not been a
mere formal exercise of creating traffic-free avenues and commercial centres, as may
have occurred in other towns and cities of Europe; rather, the car has been, gradually,
removed from circulation and the equation, such that the two-kilometre-long Stroget
has been transformed into the main artery for accessing a complete grid of pedestrian
blocks, with over 100,000 square metres devoted to walkers.
Forecasting and scenario planning are more familiar techniques to many, but
forecasting can be limited by using models calibrated against past and present
circumstances, which do not deal well with likely complex future situations and
require many assumptions, rendering predictions often simplistic, reductionist and
even absurd. We have seen that infrastructure systems can interact to become very
complex. While forecasting and scenario planning go from the present towards the
future, backcasting comes in the other direction from the future back to present.
Backcasting may be conveniently used for the following problems:
(1) for infrastructure systems or networks which tend to become complicated or
complex.
(2) when major modifications are needed instead of marginal alterations.
(3) when one or several trends dominate.
(4) when externalities are significant.
(5) when there is choice among different possibilities over the course of the long
term planning frame period.
In order to fulfil the backcasting process, it is necessary to
(1) identify a common vision of the future with stakeholders,
(2) examine requirements and analyse them,
(3) identify possible improvement options,
(4) develop paths leading to the vision envisaged,
(5) secure consensus on the paths to be followed.
This is important, if we wish to implement infrastructure and ancillary services
that ensure sustainable development, rather than entail sustainable nuisance!
152
5 The Long Term Plan for Infrastructure