medium or the long term Plans, which lay out the direction, but not the immediate
future.
5.6.5 Carrying Out the Infrastructure Estimation Exercise
Planning infrastructure for the long-term involves three components, namely:
(1) having a vision of how we want the infrastructure to work in our future world
(2) deciding what characteristics the infrastructure must have
(3) estimating how our vision will affect the characteristics above, and determine
demand, use and impact of the infrastructure.
Approaches to address these three components of long-term planning include
(a) forecasting
(b) foresighting with scenario planning and
(c) visioning and backcasting.
It is important to consider all life-cycle stages of the project, to assess the benefits,
impacts, costs and hence viability of an infrastructure project on a “whole-life” basis.
Forecasting forms part of predictive modelling tools, which are developed and
calibrated on the basis of objective science, and appear attractive as they can often
appear to promise precise answers. The approach can be effective in circumstances
where the problem is relatively simple, and the answer is required only over the
short term.
Forecasting becomes less reliable over longer time horizons (greater than, say,
10 years), and where systems are complex and subject to unpredictable perturbations
(e.g. the structural integrity of tall buildings being intentionally struck by aircraft)
and uncertainties arising from incomplete knowledge, inherent unpredictability and
multiple knowledge frames.
A sensitivity analysis in the model forecasting, may help partly, but there are clear
dangers in merely extrapolating forward while assuming that all other constraints
and conditions remain the same as in the present. Thus forecasting is only useful
where the rules connecting the present and future are not in doubt.
The foresighting with scenario planning approach removes some of these limitations by seeking to address a number of different ways in which the future might
happen. Trends in society, over time horizons ranging from 20 to 80 years, are
examined against a range of possible technological developments. This requires the
development of a series of self-consistent and recognisable scenarios, in which
separate and distinct views of relevant possible futures are developed.
Whereas forecasting uses analytical capabilities, scenarios require creativity and
imagination. We cannot know what the future is but we can plan for different
eventualities. Scenarios are used to challenge the strategy, to see how it performs
in various possible future worlds.
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future.
5.6.5 Carrying Out the Infrastructure Estimation Exercise
Planning infrastructure for the long-term involves three components, namely:
(1) having a vision of how we want the infrastructure to work in our future world
(2) deciding what characteristics the infrastructure must have
(3) estimating how our vision will affect the characteristics above, and determine
demand, use and impact of the infrastructure.
Approaches to address these three components of long-term planning include
(a) forecasting
(b) foresighting with scenario planning and
(c) visioning and backcasting.
It is important to consider all life-cycle stages of the project, to assess the benefits,
impacts, costs and hence viability of an infrastructure project on a “whole-life” basis.
Forecasting forms part of predictive modelling tools, which are developed and
calibrated on the basis of objective science, and appear attractive as they can often
appear to promise precise answers. The approach can be effective in circumstances
where the problem is relatively simple, and the answer is required only over the
short term.
Forecasting becomes less reliable over longer time horizons (greater than, say,
10 years), and where systems are complex and subject to unpredictable perturbations
(e.g. the structural integrity of tall buildings being intentionally struck by aircraft)
and uncertainties arising from incomplete knowledge, inherent unpredictability and
multiple knowledge frames.
A sensitivity analysis in the model forecasting, may help partly, but there are clear
dangers in merely extrapolating forward while assuming that all other constraints
and conditions remain the same as in the present. Thus forecasting is only useful
where the rules connecting the present and future are not in doubt.
The foresighting with scenario planning approach removes some of these limitations by seeking to address a number of different ways in which the future might
happen. Trends in society, over time horizons ranging from 20 to 80 years, are
examined against a range of possible technological developments. This requires the
development of a series of self-consistent and recognisable scenarios, in which
separate and distinct views of relevant possible futures are developed.
Whereas forecasting uses analytical capabilities, scenarios require creativity and
imagination. We cannot know what the future is but we can plan for different
eventualities. Scenarios are used to challenge the strategy, to see how it performs
in various possible future worlds.
5.6 Action Plan for Safeguarding Infrastructure Availability
151