330
S. Nowak
entering the TW-age very soon [15]. However, there is more discussion about how this
development will continue: about whether the growth rate can be maintained and what
the next milestones should be. There is in principle no doubt that from a technology
and resource point of view, very high contributions to the future energy supply
are possible. First, further cost reductions are expected to occur due to technology
developments and industrial implementation. Second, very large contributions of PV
electricity can be (technically and economically) integrated in the electricity and the
energy system at large, if short and long-term storage options are implemented. This
will also affect the cost of dispatchable energy in the future energy system. And
finally, it is increasingly evident that PV electricity, when successfully transformed
to other energy carriers (sector coupling, power-to-x technologies), will have large
impacts well beyond the electricity supply with the potential to enter into areas such
as mobility, heat, fuels or even chemicals [16]. Depending on whether the impact
of a strong renewable energy deployment is anticipated for the electric power sector
only or for a broad electrification of the entire energy system, a wide span for the
possible future installed capacity of PV is opened, ranging from below 10 to more than
60 TW p by 2050. Table 13.2 compares expected levels of PV deployment according
to different sources.
Summarising present projections for the future deployment of PV, there is no
doubt that PV, from today’s perspective, will definitely play a crucial role and will
thereby very likely be an important part of the backbone of the future energy system.
Table 13.2 Overview of different PV deployment scenarios, from very low to very high
Source/scenario
Cumulative installed capacity
by 2030 (TW p )
Cumulative installed capacity
by 2050 (TW p )
IEA stated policies scenario
2019 [18]
1.87
IEA sustainable development
scenario 2019 [18]
2.54
IRENA 2019 [19]
2.84
8.5
Bloomberg New Energy
Finance [20]
2.14
ITRPV 2019 broad
electrification, Breyer [9]
63.4
Shell sky scenario [21]
5.01
Adapted from [17]
S. Nowak
entering the TW-age very soon [15]. However, there is more discussion about how this
development will continue: about whether the growth rate can be maintained and what
the next milestones should be. There is in principle no doubt that from a technology
and resource point of view, very high contributions to the future energy supply
are possible. First, further cost reductions are expected to occur due to technology
developments and industrial implementation. Second, very large contributions of PV
electricity can be (technically and economically) integrated in the electricity and the
energy system at large, if short and long-term storage options are implemented. This
will also affect the cost of dispatchable energy in the future energy system. And
finally, it is increasingly evident that PV electricity, when successfully transformed
to other energy carriers (sector coupling, power-to-x technologies), will have large
impacts well beyond the electricity supply with the potential to enter into areas such
as mobility, heat, fuels or even chemicals [16]. Depending on whether the impact
of a strong renewable energy deployment is anticipated for the electric power sector
only or for a broad electrification of the entire energy system, a wide span for the
possible future installed capacity of PV is opened, ranging from below 10 to more than
60 TW p by 2050. Table 13.2 compares expected levels of PV deployment according
to different sources.
Summarising present projections for the future deployment of PV, there is no
doubt that PV, from today’s perspective, will definitely play a crucial role and will
thereby very likely be an important part of the backbone of the future energy system.
Table 13.2 Overview of different PV deployment scenarios, from very low to very high
Source/scenario
Cumulative installed capacity
by 2030 (TW p )
Cumulative installed capacity
by 2050 (TW p )
IEA stated policies scenario
2019 [18]
1.87
IEA sustainable development
scenario 2019 [18]
2.54
IRENA 2019 [19]
2.84
8.5
Bloomberg New Energy
Finance [20]
2.14
ITRPV 2019 broad
electrification, Breyer [9]
63.4
Shell sky scenario [21]
5.01
Adapted from [17]