The ascending branch for the period of growth
of the air humidity deficits is as following
R
þ
Mi ¼ 2:26 þ 6:77 Á lg d Mi if d Mi d Mi þ 1 : ð6Þ
The descending branch for period of decreasing of the air humidity deficits is as following
R
þ
Mi ¼ 1:06d Mi if d Mi [ d Mi þ 1 ;
ð7Þ
where d Mi —the mean monthly values of the air
humidity deficits, millibar.
Equations (6) and (7) are characterized by the
correlation coefficients, respectively r = 0.965
±0.006; r = 0.945±0.010 and values of the Fisher
test, respectively F = 14.31; F = 9.45, which are
much more acceptable at the 1% level of
significance F
T
107; 106; 1 %
ð
Þ ¼ 1:643. Therefore, the
obtained equations are statistically significant.
Without taking into account the phenomenon
of hysteresis, the averaged equation is:
R
þ
Mi ¼ 1:79 þ 6:59 Á lg d Mi ;
ð8Þ
r = 0.937±0.007; F = 8.29 > F
T
215; 214; 1 %
ð
Þ ¼
1:533
The annual value of advective warmth is
determined by the ratio (Mezentsev and Karnatsevich 1969):
P
þ
C ¼ 6:8 À 0:082 Á R C ;
ð9Þ
where R C —concentrated radiation balance,
kcal/cm
2 .
Table 3.2 Meteorological
stations
Station
Coordinates
Latitude
Longitude
Altitude, m
Baranovichi
53° 07′ 54″
25° 58′ 16″
193
Grodno
53° 36′ 13″
24° 02′ 39″
148
Volkovyssk
53° 08′ 05″
24° 27′ 34″
193
Lida
53° 54′ 25″
25° 19′ 24″
157
Novogrudok
53° 35′ 48″
25° 51′ 04″
280
Vileika
54° 30′ 25″
26° 59′ 23″
165
Volozhin
54° 05′ 42″
26° 30′ 56″
228
Naroch
54° 53′ 52″
26° 40′ 56″
171
Kaunas
54° 53′
23° 50′
76
Kybartai
54° 38′
22° 47′
58
Laukuva
55° 37′
22° 14′
165
Lazdijai
54° 14′
23° 31′
133
Panevėžys
55° 45′
24° 23′
57
Raseiniai
55° 23′
23° 07′
111
Šilutė
55° 21′
21° 28′
4
Ukmergė
55° 15′
24° 46′
72
Utena
55° 32′
25° 36′
105
Varėna
54° 15′
24° 33′
109
Vilnius
54° 38′
25° 06′
162
Biržai
56° 12′
24° 46′
60
Klaipėda
55° 44′
21° 04′
6
Šiauliai
55° 56′
23° 19′
106
Telšiai
55° 58′
22° 15′
153
3 Forecast Changes in Runoff for the Neman River Basin
17
of the air humidity deficits is as following
R
þ
Mi ¼ 2:26 þ 6:77 Á lg d Mi if d Mi d Mi þ 1 : ð6Þ
The descending branch for period of decreasing of the air humidity deficits is as following
R
þ
Mi ¼ 1:06d Mi if d Mi [ d Mi þ 1 ;
ð7Þ
where d Mi —the mean monthly values of the air
humidity deficits, millibar.
Equations (6) and (7) are characterized by the
correlation coefficients, respectively r = 0.965
±0.006; r = 0.945±0.010 and values of the Fisher
test, respectively F = 14.31; F = 9.45, which are
much more acceptable at the 1% level of
significance F
T
107; 106; 1 %
ð
Þ ¼ 1:643. Therefore, the
obtained equations are statistically significant.
Without taking into account the phenomenon
of hysteresis, the averaged equation is:
R
þ
Mi ¼ 1:79 þ 6:59 Á lg d Mi ;
ð8Þ
r = 0.937±0.007; F = 8.29 > F
T
215; 214; 1 %
ð
Þ ¼
1:533
The annual value of advective warmth is
determined by the ratio (Mezentsev and Karnatsevich 1969):
P
þ
C ¼ 6:8 À 0:082 Á R C ;
ð9Þ
where R C —concentrated radiation balance,
kcal/cm
2 .
Table 3.2 Meteorological
stations
Station
Coordinates
Latitude
Longitude
Altitude, m
Baranovichi
53° 07′ 54″
25° 58′ 16″
193
Grodno
53° 36′ 13″
24° 02′ 39″
148
Volkovyssk
53° 08′ 05″
24° 27′ 34″
193
Lida
53° 54′ 25″
25° 19′ 24″
157
Novogrudok
53° 35′ 48″
25° 51′ 04″
280
Vileika
54° 30′ 25″
26° 59′ 23″
165
Volozhin
54° 05′ 42″
26° 30′ 56″
228
Naroch
54° 53′ 52″
26° 40′ 56″
171
Kaunas
54° 53′
23° 50′
76
Kybartai
54° 38′
22° 47′
58
Laukuva
55° 37′
22° 14′
165
Lazdijai
54° 14′
23° 31′
133
Panevėžys
55° 45′
24° 23′
57
Raseiniai
55° 23′
23° 07′
111
Šilutė
55° 21′
21° 28′
4
Ukmergė
55° 15′
24° 46′
72
Utena
55° 32′
25° 36′
105
Varėna
54° 15′
24° 33′
109
Vilnius
54° 38′
25° 06′
162
Biržai
56° 12′
24° 46′
60
Klaipėda
55° 44′
21° 04′
6
Šiauliai
55° 56′
23° 19′
106
Telšiai
55° 58′
22° 15′
153
3 Forecast Changes in Runoff for the Neman River Basin
17