fruit development, and maturation. Rainfall with storm hailing further can damage
the fruit amount and size and can further worsen the drying, processing, reducing
quality, and marketability of coffee. Temperature variations can lead to change the
insect pest dynamics. Coffee Robusta is more adaptable to climate change, as
compared to coffee Arabica, and can bear up to 22–26
C. However, temperature
below 6
C is considered fatal for Robusta too [208]. Selected cultivars of Arabica
also showed reasonable and satisfactory results in terms of yield and quality, but
these cultivars are highly susceptible to frost and temperature below 18
C. Recently,
the impact of changing climate on coffee suitability and quality is projected by
Läderach et al. [209] by using the two niche models, namely, MaxEnt (Maximum
entropy) and CaNaSTA (Crop Nice Selection for Tropical Agriculture) in Nicaragua.
MaxEnt can predict the crop suitability while CaNaSTA is specializing for crop
performance (i.e., quality) predictions using the limited input data. These models
predict up to 90% reduction in the coffee suitability at elevations lower than
800 masl while mediocre elevations will face 20–25% coffee unsuitability [209].
The chosen quality attributes are acidity and flavor, as specialty coffee of this region
is famous for its acidity and flavor and also exhibits association with the climate
change. By 2050, CaNaSTA predict lowering the suitability of coffee production
with high acidity and flavor and lower to mid-elevated area will be the first target of
this change. New areas heighted >1500 masl are predicted suitable for future coffee
production by CaNaSTA [209]. This climate change can also lead to cropping
distribution pattern in Latin America [210], East Africa, [211], and Asia Pacific
[212]. Rise in temperature and altered rate of rainfall would be the basic cause of
shift of coffee production from lower altitudes to higher altitudes where temperature
and rate of precipitation will be bit more suitable for berry maturation and fruit
ripening with lower incidence of rust attack [213]. This shift will not only put natural
forestation at higher elevation in pressure leading to further climatic changes, but
there is also a 30–40% shift in coffee production from one developing country to
another affecting socioeconomic condition of that country as all coffee producing
countries do not have required higher elevation coffee fields [213]. Owing to climate
change, North America and Latin American countries including Brazil can lose the
competitiveness of high quality or specialty coffee production while provision of
opportunity of high quality coffee production may be granted to Asia Pacific
countries. Some authors also claimed climate change a step in providing favorable
climate for rearing the coffee berry borer, coffee leaf borer, and other insect pests of
coffee offering a serious threat towards the yield and high quality coffee production
[214]. Climate change has provided the newly adopted insect pests a new habitat to
generate and expected to affect the distribution, demography, and life cycle of many
insect pests. Jaramillo et al. [215] predicted that even 1
C increase can favor the
higher development of coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei, H. hampei) both
in altitudinal and latitudinal ranges. The severe case of altitudinal migration,
recently, has been seen in Indonesia, Uganda, and Tanzania where H. hampei have
been observed migrating at the rate of 300 m/decade [216], and if these rates of
migration continue, it may take 30 years (by 2050) for H. hampei to reach East
Africa, the hub of quality Arabica production [217]. The numbers of generations also
678
A. Hameed et al.
the fruit amount and size and can further worsen the drying, processing, reducing
quality, and marketability of coffee. Temperature variations can lead to change the
insect pest dynamics. Coffee Robusta is more adaptable to climate change, as
compared to coffee Arabica, and can bear up to 22–26
C. However, temperature
below 6
C is considered fatal for Robusta too [208]. Selected cultivars of Arabica
also showed reasonable and satisfactory results in terms of yield and quality, but
these cultivars are highly susceptible to frost and temperature below 18
C. Recently,
the impact of changing climate on coffee suitability and quality is projected by
Läderach et al. [209] by using the two niche models, namely, MaxEnt (Maximum
entropy) and CaNaSTA (Crop Nice Selection for Tropical Agriculture) in Nicaragua.
MaxEnt can predict the crop suitability while CaNaSTA is specializing for crop
performance (i.e., quality) predictions using the limited input data. These models
predict up to 90% reduction in the coffee suitability at elevations lower than
800 masl while mediocre elevations will face 20–25% coffee unsuitability [209].
The chosen quality attributes are acidity and flavor, as specialty coffee of this region
is famous for its acidity and flavor and also exhibits association with the climate
change. By 2050, CaNaSTA predict lowering the suitability of coffee production
with high acidity and flavor and lower to mid-elevated area will be the first target of
this change. New areas heighted >1500 masl are predicted suitable for future coffee
production by CaNaSTA [209]. This climate change can also lead to cropping
distribution pattern in Latin America [210], East Africa, [211], and Asia Pacific
[212]. Rise in temperature and altered rate of rainfall would be the basic cause of
shift of coffee production from lower altitudes to higher altitudes where temperature
and rate of precipitation will be bit more suitable for berry maturation and fruit
ripening with lower incidence of rust attack [213]. This shift will not only put natural
forestation at higher elevation in pressure leading to further climatic changes, but
there is also a 30–40% shift in coffee production from one developing country to
another affecting socioeconomic condition of that country as all coffee producing
countries do not have required higher elevation coffee fields [213]. Owing to climate
change, North America and Latin American countries including Brazil can lose the
competitiveness of high quality or specialty coffee production while provision of
opportunity of high quality coffee production may be granted to Asia Pacific
countries. Some authors also claimed climate change a step in providing favorable
climate for rearing the coffee berry borer, coffee leaf borer, and other insect pests of
coffee offering a serious threat towards the yield and high quality coffee production
[214]. Climate change has provided the newly adopted insect pests a new habitat to
generate and expected to affect the distribution, demography, and life cycle of many
insect pests. Jaramillo et al. [215] predicted that even 1
C increase can favor the
higher development of coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei, H. hampei) both
in altitudinal and latitudinal ranges. The severe case of altitudinal migration,
recently, has been seen in Indonesia, Uganda, and Tanzania where H. hampei have
been observed migrating at the rate of 300 m/decade [216], and if these rates of
migration continue, it may take 30 years (by 2050) for H. hampei to reach East
Africa, the hub of quality Arabica production [217]. The numbers of generations also
678
A. Hameed et al.