15 Flood Risk Management System in Poland
285
will be characterised by a precipitation shortfall (over 30%) in relation to normal
precipitation.
In climate change forecasts for Poland, there is observed an increase of the mean
annual air temperature, however, there are not seen any distinct changes in the area of
precipitation [36, 37]. According to E. ˙
Zmudzka [38], precipitation in lowland Poland
did not show any significant direction of change in the second half of the twentieth
century. The results of analyses and projections show that climate change in Poland
will be moderate, both in the short-term as well as a long-term perspective, and will
involve: precipitation volumes, maximum flows, and extreme event incidence. In the
short-term (2011–2030), a moderate precipitation growth is expected in Poland (up
to 10%), whereas in the perspective of the period 2081–2100, up to about 15% [39].
European projects [40] predict for the period 2070–2100, among others, an increase
of more than 10% in maximum flows with a probability of exceeding 1% in upper
and medium Vistula and its tributaries, and in the Oder along its entire course we
well as in its tributaries up to the Warta estuary.
Models prepared under the European ESPON Climate Project [41], dealing with
climate change impact in the area of susceptibility and ability to adjust to the changes
in particular regions, have revealed some peculiar features of the European continent.
It is potentially assumed that the greatest negative impact of the climate will be
recorded in Southern and Western Europe, which corresponds with the equally high
susceptibility of that part of the region to climate change and generation of extreme
events, also floods (Fig. 15.3). In a hypothetical scenario without climate change,
Fig. 15.3 Percentage of the city that would be flooded in case water in rivers rises 1 m (only cities
>100 000 hab) and the relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge (source https://
www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright)
285
will be characterised by a precipitation shortfall (over 30%) in relation to normal
precipitation.
In climate change forecasts for Poland, there is observed an increase of the mean
annual air temperature, however, there are not seen any distinct changes in the area of
precipitation [36, 37]. According to E. ˙
Zmudzka [38], precipitation in lowland Poland
did not show any significant direction of change in the second half of the twentieth
century. The results of analyses and projections show that climate change in Poland
will be moderate, both in the short-term as well as a long-term perspective, and will
involve: precipitation volumes, maximum flows, and extreme event incidence. In the
short-term (2011–2030), a moderate precipitation growth is expected in Poland (up
to 10%), whereas in the perspective of the period 2081–2100, up to about 15% [39].
European projects [40] predict for the period 2070–2100, among others, an increase
of more than 10% in maximum flows with a probability of exceeding 1% in upper
and medium Vistula and its tributaries, and in the Oder along its entire course we
well as in its tributaries up to the Warta estuary.
Models prepared under the European ESPON Climate Project [41], dealing with
climate change impact in the area of susceptibility and ability to adjust to the changes
in particular regions, have revealed some peculiar features of the European continent.
It is potentially assumed that the greatest negative impact of the climate will be
recorded in Southern and Western Europe, which corresponds with the equally high
susceptibility of that part of the region to climate change and generation of extreme
events, also floods (Fig. 15.3). In a hypothetical scenario without climate change,
Fig. 15.3 Percentage of the city that would be flooded in case water in rivers rises 1 m (only cities
>100 000 hab) and the relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge (source https://
www.eea.europa.eu/legal/copyright)