286
R. Graf
total flood losses will continue to increase as a consequence of societal and economic
factors such as an increase in exposure and vulnerability [42]. Flood disasters in
Europe increased in number and amount of loss from the 1970s to the 2000s.
The model defining the total ability of an area to adapt to climate change indicates a high potential in this regard of the regions of North-Eastern and Central
Europe, except the areas of Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. The gauges
taken into account in the models: the aggregate potential impact of climate change,
the overall capacity to adapt to climate change and the potential vulnerability to
climate change are an expression of compiling natural environment characteristics
with socio-economic circumstances.
15.3 Diagnosis of the Flood Situation in Europe and Poland
A flood is an event localised in a specific time and space [43], and its extent is dependent on the ‘entry state’, that is the cause, the sequence of changes and the ‘exit state’
in the form of the consequences and after-effects – hazards, casualties, displacements,
damage or synergic events. The determinant of the magnitude, coverage, and recurrence of floods is the probability of exceeding culmination flows, which for common
floods is 10%, great floods – 1%, and catastrophic – 0.2% or 0.5%.
An analysis of observation series dealing with flood events in Europe and Poland
(Dartmouth Flood Observatory), revealed that floods are is caused primarily by heavy
rains and, increasingly more often, by brief, heavy rainfalls. The floods duration range
between several days up to a month, but 9 days on average, most often 5 days. The
highest incidence characterise floods with a probability of exceeding the culmination
flow of 5–10%. An analysis of the number of floods occurring in Europe, correlated
with long-term projections [44] showed that they occurred the most frequently in
the river basins of the Rhône, the Rhine, the Danube and the Thames, which are
classified among the most flood-prone areas in Europe (Fig. 15.3). The countries
where great floods occurred the most frequently are Romania, the Czech Republic,
Slovakia, Great Britain, Germany, and Austria.
The oldest piece of information about a flood in Poland, which occurred in 988
was found in the Długosz Chronicle [45]. Evidence of the flood threat also comes
in the form of old cartographic studies, flood boards or high water signs, which
constitute approximate hydrological information comprising the location, time and
elevation of a water rise culmination. An analysis of flood data recorded in Poland
during the period 1946–2001 revealed 590 instances of floods with varying origin
and coverage, including 15 regional catastrophic events [46].
Floods in Poland, just as in every European region, can occur every year, or
several times a year, in the form of genetically varied extreme events, which is
conditioned by multiple adverse factors, e.g.: intense precipitation, sudden warming
resulting in rapid melting, or an unfavourable baric situation [47, 48]. Precipitation
type floods occur mainly in the southern part of the country, whereas the other areas
are susceptible to the occurrence of snowmelt floods, and locally in the Baltic coast
R. Graf
total flood losses will continue to increase as a consequence of societal and economic
factors such as an increase in exposure and vulnerability [42]. Flood disasters in
Europe increased in number and amount of loss from the 1970s to the 2000s.
The model defining the total ability of an area to adapt to climate change indicates a high potential in this regard of the regions of North-Eastern and Central
Europe, except the areas of Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. The gauges
taken into account in the models: the aggregate potential impact of climate change,
the overall capacity to adapt to climate change and the potential vulnerability to
climate change are an expression of compiling natural environment characteristics
with socio-economic circumstances.
15.3 Diagnosis of the Flood Situation in Europe and Poland
A flood is an event localised in a specific time and space [43], and its extent is dependent on the ‘entry state’, that is the cause, the sequence of changes and the ‘exit state’
in the form of the consequences and after-effects – hazards, casualties, displacements,
damage or synergic events. The determinant of the magnitude, coverage, and recurrence of floods is the probability of exceeding culmination flows, which for common
floods is 10%, great floods – 1%, and catastrophic – 0.2% or 0.5%.
An analysis of observation series dealing with flood events in Europe and Poland
(Dartmouth Flood Observatory), revealed that floods are is caused primarily by heavy
rains and, increasingly more often, by brief, heavy rainfalls. The floods duration range
between several days up to a month, but 9 days on average, most often 5 days. The
highest incidence characterise floods with a probability of exceeding the culmination
flow of 5–10%. An analysis of the number of floods occurring in Europe, correlated
with long-term projections [44] showed that they occurred the most frequently in
the river basins of the Rhône, the Rhine, the Danube and the Thames, which are
classified among the most flood-prone areas in Europe (Fig. 15.3). The countries
where great floods occurred the most frequently are Romania, the Czech Republic,
Slovakia, Great Britain, Germany, and Austria.
The oldest piece of information about a flood in Poland, which occurred in 988
was found in the Długosz Chronicle [45]. Evidence of the flood threat also comes
in the form of old cartographic studies, flood boards or high water signs, which
constitute approximate hydrological information comprising the location, time and
elevation of a water rise culmination. An analysis of flood data recorded in Poland
during the period 1946–2001 revealed 590 instances of floods with varying origin
and coverage, including 15 regional catastrophic events [46].
Floods in Poland, just as in every European region, can occur every year, or
several times a year, in the form of genetically varied extreme events, which is
conditioned by multiple adverse factors, e.g.: intense precipitation, sudden warming
resulting in rapid melting, or an unfavourable baric situation [47, 48]. Precipitation
type floods occur mainly in the southern part of the country, whereas the other areas
are susceptible to the occurrence of snowmelt floods, and locally in the Baltic coast