284
R. Graf
15.2 European Climate Change Projections and Flood Risk
The European continent is characterised by a varying susceptibility to climatic effects
and the ability to adapt to its changes [1, 7, 10]. This is expressed in the hydrological
characteristics, whose primary determinant is the growth of the incidence of extreme
events: floods and droughts [31, 32]. The climate change mechanism is related to
multiple factors, among which of key significance are: solar radiation fluctuations,
Earth orbit movement shifts in a time scale of tens of thousands of years, oscillations in the ocean–atmosphere system (ENSO, NAO, AO, AMO) and changes of the
chemical composition of the atmosphere and the Earth surface properties [6, 33]. The
last two factors are the side effects of anthropogenic activity, particularly in terms
of changes in and use and the increase of impermeable surfaces, which accelerates
water outflow from catchments with simultaneous decrease or absence of retention
which is a determinant of catchment sensitivity to climatic change [34].
Projections of climate change in Europe with a forecast until the end of the twentyfirst century assume changes both of air temperature and precipitation (Fig. 15.2),
which may contribute to generating a greater number of extreme events and an
increase of their incidence [30, 35]. The forecasts show a positive, by a maximum
of 6 °C, the trend of air temperature rise, particularly in Northern and Southern
Europe (the Mediterranean region) and a characteristic duality of the European
territory with respect to precipitation. The northern part of Europe is a region
with a projected precipitation growth of more than 30%, whereas the southern part
Fig. 15.2 Absolute change in mean annual temperature a and mean annual precipitation
b between control period 1961–1990 and 2071–2100, under the IPCC SRES scenario A2.
Data have been provided through the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through
contract EVK2-CT2001-00132 [https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta/peseta-i-results/change-meanannual-temperature-and-precipitation-end-century]
R. Graf
15.2 European Climate Change Projections and Flood Risk
The European continent is characterised by a varying susceptibility to climatic effects
and the ability to adapt to its changes [1, 7, 10]. This is expressed in the hydrological
characteristics, whose primary determinant is the growth of the incidence of extreme
events: floods and droughts [31, 32]. The climate change mechanism is related to
multiple factors, among which of key significance are: solar radiation fluctuations,
Earth orbit movement shifts in a time scale of tens of thousands of years, oscillations in the ocean–atmosphere system (ENSO, NAO, AO, AMO) and changes of the
chemical composition of the atmosphere and the Earth surface properties [6, 33]. The
last two factors are the side effects of anthropogenic activity, particularly in terms
of changes in and use and the increase of impermeable surfaces, which accelerates
water outflow from catchments with simultaneous decrease or absence of retention
which is a determinant of catchment sensitivity to climatic change [34].
Projections of climate change in Europe with a forecast until the end of the twentyfirst century assume changes both of air temperature and precipitation (Fig. 15.2),
which may contribute to generating a greater number of extreme events and an
increase of their incidence [30, 35]. The forecasts show a positive, by a maximum
of 6 °C, the trend of air temperature rise, particularly in Northern and Southern
Europe (the Mediterranean region) and a characteristic duality of the European
territory with respect to precipitation. The northern part of Europe is a region
with a projected precipitation growth of more than 30%, whereas the southern part
Fig. 15.2 Absolute change in mean annual temperature a and mean annual precipitation
b between control period 1961–1990 and 2071–2100, under the IPCC SRES scenario A2.
Data have been provided through the PRUDENCE data archive, funded by the EU through
contract EVK2-CT2001-00132 [https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/peseta/peseta-i-results/change-meanannual-temperature-and-precipitation-end-century]