Since 2012, the demand for oil in the transportation sector has grown steadily by
1.4% yr
−1 , following a tendency of decades, despite fast increases in electric and
hybrid vehicles around the world. China and India showed oil consumption growth
rates of 4% yr
−1 and 5% yr
−1 and were responsible for the largest part of this global
demand increase. Even the West saw an increase in oil demand of 1.3% yr
−1 in
USA and 0.4% yr
−1 in UE, despite the high demand for electrical and hybrid
vehicles (e.g., Jackson et al. 2018). Commercial air travel has aggravated the situation with about a 27% increase in fuel demand over the last decade, which has
outpaced the higher fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft.
Global coal demand declined steadily over the period 2000–2017 by about 0.9%
yr
−1 , corresponding to about 156 GJyr
−1 in the latter year. Canada and the USA are
the paradigms of this tendency with a combined 40% decrease since 2005. Within
the EU, renewable energies are expected to surpass coal as the source of primary
energy by 2021. However, this situation may be offset by higher coal consumption
in Asia/Pacific and Central/South America, with an increase of 3%. As for India, the
current coal consumption is higher than that in the USA and the EU. Overall, the
International Energy Agency points out to an inevitable decrease in coal demand in
the decades following 2030. Despite a global trend for increased energy efficiency,
per capita energy demand in countries such as the US and EU is still much higher
than in India by about five- to tenfold (Jackson et al. 2018).
From 1959 to 2017, the emitted carbon from the atmosphere, oceans, and land
accounted for average values of 45%, 24%, and 30% for △CAt, UCO, and UCL,
respectively. Over this period, the average global fossil carbon emissions increased
over every decade. For example, the average fossil emissions in the 1960s, 1990,
and over the past 10 years (2008–2017) were 11.4 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , 23.1 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 ,
and 34.4 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , respectively. On the other hand, and for the same decades,
the average ELU, due to land-use change and forestry, was stationary of 5.5 Gt CO 2
yr
−1 , 5.1 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , and 5.5 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 . During the second half of the twentieth
century, the rate of carbon dioxide emissions decreased every decade, for example,
from 4.5% yr
−1 in the 1960s to 1% yr
−1 in the 1990s. In the 2000s, the global
carbon emissions showed an average growth rate of 3.2% yr
−1 followed by a
decrease of 1.5% yr
−1 in the period 2008–2017 and with a low yearly growth
during the period 2014–2016.
For the 1960s, 1990s, and the period 2008–2017, Fig. 8.5 depicts average
atmospheric concentration growth rates of carbon dioxide in the three major
ecosystems (atmosphere, ocean, and land).
It shows a tendency toward a strong worsening of the growth rate of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the three ecosystems considered and clearly more
pronounced over land.
Average ocean and land carbon sinks increased with the atmospheric carbon
augment, and carbon land sinks showed higher variability than ocean land sinks. In
2017, △CAt, UCO, and UCL were 16.8 Gt CO 2 yr
−1
, 9.1 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , and 14 Gt
CO 2 yr
−1 , respectively. Over the decade 2008–2017, the budget closure averaged
1.83 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , with 1.1 Gt CO 2 in 2017, suggesting an overestimation of the
8.2 Topics on GHG Emissions …
275
1.4% yr
−1 , following a tendency of decades, despite fast increases in electric and
hybrid vehicles around the world. China and India showed oil consumption growth
rates of 4% yr
−1 and 5% yr
−1 and were responsible for the largest part of this global
demand increase. Even the West saw an increase in oil demand of 1.3% yr
−1 in
USA and 0.4% yr
−1 in UE, despite the high demand for electrical and hybrid
vehicles (e.g., Jackson et al. 2018). Commercial air travel has aggravated the situation with about a 27% increase in fuel demand over the last decade, which has
outpaced the higher fuel efficiency of commercial aircraft.
Global coal demand declined steadily over the period 2000–2017 by about 0.9%
yr
−1 , corresponding to about 156 GJyr
−1 in the latter year. Canada and the USA are
the paradigms of this tendency with a combined 40% decrease since 2005. Within
the EU, renewable energies are expected to surpass coal as the source of primary
energy by 2021. However, this situation may be offset by higher coal consumption
in Asia/Pacific and Central/South America, with an increase of 3%. As for India, the
current coal consumption is higher than that in the USA and the EU. Overall, the
International Energy Agency points out to an inevitable decrease in coal demand in
the decades following 2030. Despite a global trend for increased energy efficiency,
per capita energy demand in countries such as the US and EU is still much higher
than in India by about five- to tenfold (Jackson et al. 2018).
From 1959 to 2017, the emitted carbon from the atmosphere, oceans, and land
accounted for average values of 45%, 24%, and 30% for △CAt, UCO, and UCL,
respectively. Over this period, the average global fossil carbon emissions increased
over every decade. For example, the average fossil emissions in the 1960s, 1990,
and over the past 10 years (2008–2017) were 11.4 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , 23.1 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 ,
and 34.4 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , respectively. On the other hand, and for the same decades,
the average ELU, due to land-use change and forestry, was stationary of 5.5 Gt CO 2
yr
−1 , 5.1 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , and 5.5 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 . During the second half of the twentieth
century, the rate of carbon dioxide emissions decreased every decade, for example,
from 4.5% yr
−1 in the 1960s to 1% yr
−1 in the 1990s. In the 2000s, the global
carbon emissions showed an average growth rate of 3.2% yr
−1 followed by a
decrease of 1.5% yr
−1 in the period 2008–2017 and with a low yearly growth
during the period 2014–2016.
For the 1960s, 1990s, and the period 2008–2017, Fig. 8.5 depicts average
atmospheric concentration growth rates of carbon dioxide in the three major
ecosystems (atmosphere, ocean, and land).
It shows a tendency toward a strong worsening of the growth rate of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the three ecosystems considered and clearly more
pronounced over land.
Average ocean and land carbon sinks increased with the atmospheric carbon
augment, and carbon land sinks showed higher variability than ocean land sinks. In
2017, △CAt, UCO, and UCL were 16.8 Gt CO 2 yr
−1
, 9.1 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , and 14 Gt
CO 2 yr
−1 , respectively. Over the decade 2008–2017, the budget closure averaged
1.83 Gt CO 2 yr
−1 , with 1.1 Gt CO 2 in 2017, suggesting an overestimation of the
8.2 Topics on GHG Emissions …
275