the atmosphere-sea-land-ice and snow systems, it constitutes the complexity, diversity, and possibility of computational analysis of climate change. The current
physical laws of climate phenomena have not been fully explained, let alone a
mathematical equation to describe climate phenomena (physical phenomena).
Also, greenhouse gas emission prediction is a necessary input condition of the
climate model, and the uncertainty of its scenario setting will inevitably affect the
output of the climate model.
In terms of predicting global and national future climate change scenarios, largescale climate models suitable for use by various countries are still under development. The climate models used so far cannot accurately construct scenarios of future
climate change in different countries and the world. It becomes a significant constraint that forbids the counties to take further research and countermeasures.
There is significant uncertainty in the realization of the “1.5
C” target of the Paris
Agreement. There are significant uncertainties in “who,” “when,” “where,” “how,”
and “how much reduction of greenhouse gases can be achieved” to achieve the
“1.5
C” target. It is because there are uncertainties in temperature relationsconcentration-amount of reduction-reduction measures (time, place, ways).
1.5.3 Uncertainty in Decision-Making Relationship
with Uncertainty
1.5.3.1 Skepticism to Global Warming
As mentioned in Sect. 1.2, climate change has changed drastically since the temperature changed from cold to dry and wet, at least since 10,000 B.C. Although
global warming has become more severe in recent years, it is assumed that current
global warming is only a part of the natural cycle of global climate change and due to
the uncertainty of climate change mentioned above. Some scientists have claimed
“Skepticism to Global Warming.” There are two main types of “Skepticism to
Global Warming.”
One comes from scientific uncertainty. It is considered to belong to the category
of scientific debate and policy debate. Specifically, it includes “discussion/question
on scientific knowledge of global warming,” “skepticism on the cause of global
warming,” “discussion on the carbon cycle,” “criticism for dispersion of prediction
results,” and “impact of global warming” discussion.
The other is systematic skepticism and denial of propaganda activities. It is
thought that this is mainly due to the interests generated by measures against global
warming, for example, “denial of CO2 cause,” “criticism against IPCC,” and
“criticism against global warming countermeasures.” At times, we oppose global
warming countermeasures such as the introduction of new energy due to scientific
uncertainties or variations in future prediction results of global warming. To this end,
in the “Merchants of Doubt” by US science historian Naomi Oreskes and others,
how some elite scientists have come to terms with individual companies and political
1 Climate Change and Low-Carbon Society: Coping with Uncertainty
29
physical laws of climate phenomena have not been fully explained, let alone a
mathematical equation to describe climate phenomena (physical phenomena).
Also, greenhouse gas emission prediction is a necessary input condition of the
climate model, and the uncertainty of its scenario setting will inevitably affect the
output of the climate model.
In terms of predicting global and national future climate change scenarios, largescale climate models suitable for use by various countries are still under development. The climate models used so far cannot accurately construct scenarios of future
climate change in different countries and the world. It becomes a significant constraint that forbids the counties to take further research and countermeasures.
There is significant uncertainty in the realization of the “1.5
C” target of the Paris
Agreement. There are significant uncertainties in “who,” “when,” “where,” “how,”
and “how much reduction of greenhouse gases can be achieved” to achieve the
“1.5
C” target. It is because there are uncertainties in temperature relationsconcentration-amount of reduction-reduction measures (time, place, ways).
1.5.3 Uncertainty in Decision-Making Relationship
with Uncertainty
1.5.3.1 Skepticism to Global Warming
As mentioned in Sect. 1.2, climate change has changed drastically since the temperature changed from cold to dry and wet, at least since 10,000 B.C. Although
global warming has become more severe in recent years, it is assumed that current
global warming is only a part of the natural cycle of global climate change and due to
the uncertainty of climate change mentioned above. Some scientists have claimed
“Skepticism to Global Warming.” There are two main types of “Skepticism to
Global Warming.”
One comes from scientific uncertainty. It is considered to belong to the category
of scientific debate and policy debate. Specifically, it includes “discussion/question
on scientific knowledge of global warming,” “skepticism on the cause of global
warming,” “discussion on the carbon cycle,” “criticism for dispersion of prediction
results,” and “impact of global warming” discussion.
The other is systematic skepticism and denial of propaganda activities. It is
thought that this is mainly due to the interests generated by measures against global
warming, for example, “denial of CO2 cause,” “criticism against IPCC,” and
“criticism against global warming countermeasures.” At times, we oppose global
warming countermeasures such as the introduction of new energy due to scientific
uncertainties or variations in future prediction results of global warming. To this end,
in the “Merchants of Doubt” by US science historian Naomi Oreskes and others,
how some elite scientists have come to terms with individual companies and political
1 Climate Change and Low-Carbon Society: Coping with Uncertainty
29