groups and how to organize systematic skepticism and denial is described in detail
(Naomi 2011).
The former can be attributed to uncertainty, and it is hoped that the skepticism
will gradually disappear as science and technology advances reduce uncertainty.
Especially in the problem of social science policy theory, such as global warming
countermeasures, unlike the problem of natural science in which there is only one
correct answer, there can be multiple answers, which may increase uncertainty.
Absent. Although the IPCC is the “mainstream” and most “authoritative” institution
in the field of climate change, the science is not a “majority” logic, but sometimes
“truth” in the minority. Therefore, it is considered that it is nature the science should
have the existence of a healthy “skepticism.”
1.5.3.2 Decision-Making with Uncertainty
Decision theory is divided into three categories: decision-making under certainty,
decision-making under risk, and decision-making under uncertainty. There are more
difficult uncertainties in combating global warming. Policy-making is the act of
choosing the future, but there is also uncertainty in the decision itself.
Taking global climate countermeasures needs to give answers to (1) where,
(2) when, (3) who, (4) what, and (5) how.
It is currently believed that global warming, which is mainly caused by the
greenhouse effect caused by human production and living activities, requires a
time interval of several generations to change. This change can allow today’s
human society to take various measures under instability. To slow down the global
warming and adapt, without the catastrophic consequences of the decline of an
ancient civilization. Civilized society does not appear to be powerless in the face
of climate change, nor can it adapt to climate change indefinitely.
We have to make decisions with uncertainty. There are two essential principles for
decision-making under uncertainty: one is the principle, and the other is flexibility.
(a) Principle
“United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”: We must achieve
the ultimate goal of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that does not cause dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.
Key conclusions from IPCC Report AR5: It is highly likely that human activity
was the predominant factor in the warming observed since the mid-twentieth century
(possibly more significant than 95%). The changes in total accumulated CO 2
emissions and global mean surface temperatures are roughly linear.
“Paris Agreement” Goal: The Paris Agreement commits to keeping the global
temperature increase to less than 2
C above pre-Industrial Revolution levels while
making efforts to keep it under 1.5
C higher. It should make virtually global
greenhouse gas emissions zero in the second half of the twenty-first century.
Therefore, humankind must actively work to reduce CO 2 emissions in its production activities and daily activities. It is the basic principle.
30
W. Zhou
(Naomi 2011).
The former can be attributed to uncertainty, and it is hoped that the skepticism
will gradually disappear as science and technology advances reduce uncertainty.
Especially in the problem of social science policy theory, such as global warming
countermeasures, unlike the problem of natural science in which there is only one
correct answer, there can be multiple answers, which may increase uncertainty.
Absent. Although the IPCC is the “mainstream” and most “authoritative” institution
in the field of climate change, the science is not a “majority” logic, but sometimes
“truth” in the minority. Therefore, it is considered that it is nature the science should
have the existence of a healthy “skepticism.”
1.5.3.2 Decision-Making with Uncertainty
Decision theory is divided into three categories: decision-making under certainty,
decision-making under risk, and decision-making under uncertainty. There are more
difficult uncertainties in combating global warming. Policy-making is the act of
choosing the future, but there is also uncertainty in the decision itself.
Taking global climate countermeasures needs to give answers to (1) where,
(2) when, (3) who, (4) what, and (5) how.
It is currently believed that global warming, which is mainly caused by the
greenhouse effect caused by human production and living activities, requires a
time interval of several generations to change. This change can allow today’s
human society to take various measures under instability. To slow down the global
warming and adapt, without the catastrophic consequences of the decline of an
ancient civilization. Civilized society does not appear to be powerless in the face
of climate change, nor can it adapt to climate change indefinitely.
We have to make decisions with uncertainty. There are two essential principles for
decision-making under uncertainty: one is the principle, and the other is flexibility.
(a) Principle
“United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”: We must achieve
the ultimate goal of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that does not cause dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.
Key conclusions from IPCC Report AR5: It is highly likely that human activity
was the predominant factor in the warming observed since the mid-twentieth century
(possibly more significant than 95%). The changes in total accumulated CO 2
emissions and global mean surface temperatures are roughly linear.
“Paris Agreement” Goal: The Paris Agreement commits to keeping the global
temperature increase to less than 2
C above pre-Industrial Revolution levels while
making efforts to keep it under 1.5
C higher. It should make virtually global
greenhouse gas emissions zero in the second half of the twenty-first century.
Therefore, humankind must actively work to reduce CO 2 emissions in its production activities and daily activities. It is the basic principle.
30
W. Zhou