become apparent over a long period of several generations after greenhouse gas
emissions and that the damage will continue for a long time. The causal relationship
is not fully understood, the probability of damage is not exact, and it is a highly
uncertain problem.
1.5.2.2 Uncertainty in Future Forecast Evaluation
It can be seen from Figs. 1.10–1.12 that future prediction results have a large degree
of dispersion. It is due to the complexity of the climate system and the limitations of
assessment techniques which make the current assessment results of climate change
mostly uncertain. This uncertainty is mainly due to the following aspects:
(a) The uncertainty in the understanding of climate change phenomena
Due to the limited understanding of the carbon cycle, the physical and
chemical processes of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including the uncertainties
in the greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions data, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is transformed into a “radiation force” for the climate
system. At times, there is much uncertainty. Besides, the emission of greenhouse
gases and aerosol is restricted by many factors such as the population, economy,
Table 1.2 Assessment of the impact of human activities on global warming in the IPCC assessment report
Reports
Years
Evaluation of the impact of human activities on
global warming
First Assessment Report 1990
(FAR)
1990
“The temperature would raise”
Anthropogenic greenhouse gases can cause climate change.
Second Assessment Report:
Climate change 1995 (SAR)
1995
“Impact is reflected in global climate”
Distinct human influences are visible in the world
climate.
Third Assessment Report:
Climate change 2001(TAR)
2001
“High possibility” (Over 66%)
It is high possibility that most of the warming
observed in the last 50 years is due to increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations.
Fourth Assessment Report:
Climate change 2007 (AR4)
2007
“Quiet high possibility” (Over 90%)
There is no doubt about global warm.ng will
occur. It is quiet possibility that the global
warming since the mid-20th century is alomst
because of the increased concentrations of
anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5)
2013–2014 “Extremely high possibility” (Over 95%)
There is no doubt about global warming will
occur. It is extremely possibility that the main
reason of global warming since the mid-20th century is the humankind activities.
Source: Based on IPCC AR5 WGI TSBox TS.1
1 Climate Change and Low-Carbon Society: Coping with Uncertainty
27
emissions and that the damage will continue for a long time. The causal relationship
is not fully understood, the probability of damage is not exact, and it is a highly
uncertain problem.
1.5.2.2 Uncertainty in Future Forecast Evaluation
It can be seen from Figs. 1.10–1.12 that future prediction results have a large degree
of dispersion. It is due to the complexity of the climate system and the limitations of
assessment techniques which make the current assessment results of climate change
mostly uncertain. This uncertainty is mainly due to the following aspects:
(a) The uncertainty in the understanding of climate change phenomena
Due to the limited understanding of the carbon cycle, the physical and
chemical processes of greenhouse gases and aerosols, including the uncertainties
in the greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions data, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is transformed into a “radiation force” for the climate
system. At times, there is much uncertainty. Besides, the emission of greenhouse
gases and aerosol is restricted by many factors such as the population, economy,
Table 1.2 Assessment of the impact of human activities on global warming in the IPCC assessment report
Reports
Years
Evaluation of the impact of human activities on
global warming
First Assessment Report 1990
(FAR)
1990
“The temperature would raise”
Anthropogenic greenhouse gases can cause climate change.
Second Assessment Report:
Climate change 1995 (SAR)
1995
“Impact is reflected in global climate”
Distinct human influences are visible in the world
climate.
Third Assessment Report:
Climate change 2001(TAR)
2001
“High possibility” (Over 66%)
It is high possibility that most of the warming
observed in the last 50 years is due to increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations.
Fourth Assessment Report:
Climate change 2007 (AR4)
2007
“Quiet high possibility” (Over 90%)
There is no doubt about global warm.ng will
occur. It is quiet possibility that the global
warming since the mid-20th century is alomst
because of the increased concentrations of
anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Fifth Assessment Report
(AR5)
2013–2014 “Extremely high possibility” (Over 95%)
There is no doubt about global warming will
occur. It is extremely possibility that the main
reason of global warming since the mid-20th century is the humankind activities.
Source: Based on IPCC AR5 WGI TSBox TS.1
1 Climate Change and Low-Carbon Society: Coping with Uncertainty
27