and politics, international relations, cultural anthropology and social psychology,
and logic.
Concerning the issue of climate change, there is uncertainty in scientific knowledge (category of cognitive science) as well as uncertainty in human decisionmaking, including policy-making (category of design science). Uncertainty is one
of the essential factors that complicate measures against global warming (Yamaji
2017). Uncertainties in scientific knowledge include uncertainty in recognizing
climate phenomena and uncertainty in future projections.
1.5.2.1 Uncertainty in Recognizing Phenomena
In the climate change issue, it is a science that human-made carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase, that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are rising, and that
global mean temperatures have risen over the past 100 years. It is a fact that has been
observed for a long time, and it is almost sure that it corresponds to the above
uncertainties. However, human society has not fully elucidated the causal relationship, global system, and the temporal and spatial effects on the social system and
human system in the climate change problem.
Including the situation of climate change in the past 2000 years, such as the
Medieval Warm Period appearing in the North Atlantic from the tenth to the
fourteenth century AD, and the beginning of the fifteenth century, the global climate
entered a cold period “Little Ice Age” (Fig. 1.3 can also be seen whether China called
it the “Ming and Qing Little Ice Age”) existed, and the scope and extent of existing
climate change remain with uncertainty (IPCC 2007). There are many uncertainties
influencing factors (such as the correlation relationship between atmospheric
temperature-greenhouse gas concentration-greenhouse gas emissions, the different
understandings of the greenhouse effect mechanism, the contribution of water vapor
to the greenhouse effect and warming, and others).
The complexity of climate system change determines that human understanding
of climate change is inevitable. Many research conclusions on climate change are not
final. Many issues need to be further studied. For example, as shown in Table 1.2, the
results of the evaluation of the causes of climate change seen in the IPCC report are
also uncertain.
“Possibility” is a term that expresses uncertainty quantitatively and is expressed
probabilistically based on observation, statistical analysis of model results, and
expert judgment.
The most comprehensive evaluation of scientific knowledge on global warming
may be the IPCC report. IPCC generally started in 1990, separated every 5 years.
According to Table 1.2, we can find that it has a different comment on climate
change and the influence of human actives, from FAR (1990), including “The
temperature would raise,” “Anthropogenic greenhouse gases can cause climate
change” to the AR5(2013) “Extremely high possibility” (over 95%), and “There is
no doubt that global warming will occur.” IPCC’s understanding of the causes and
extent of climate change is deepening. However, it is expected that damage will
26
W. Zhou
and logic.
Concerning the issue of climate change, there is uncertainty in scientific knowledge (category of cognitive science) as well as uncertainty in human decisionmaking, including policy-making (category of design science). Uncertainty is one
of the essential factors that complicate measures against global warming (Yamaji
2017). Uncertainties in scientific knowledge include uncertainty in recognizing
climate phenomena and uncertainty in future projections.
1.5.2.1 Uncertainty in Recognizing Phenomena
In the climate change issue, it is a science that human-made carbon dioxide emissions continue to increase, that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are rising, and that
global mean temperatures have risen over the past 100 years. It is a fact that has been
observed for a long time, and it is almost sure that it corresponds to the above
uncertainties. However, human society has not fully elucidated the causal relationship, global system, and the temporal and spatial effects on the social system and
human system in the climate change problem.
Including the situation of climate change in the past 2000 years, such as the
Medieval Warm Period appearing in the North Atlantic from the tenth to the
fourteenth century AD, and the beginning of the fifteenth century, the global climate
entered a cold period “Little Ice Age” (Fig. 1.3 can also be seen whether China called
it the “Ming and Qing Little Ice Age”) existed, and the scope and extent of existing
climate change remain with uncertainty (IPCC 2007). There are many uncertainties
influencing factors (such as the correlation relationship between atmospheric
temperature-greenhouse gas concentration-greenhouse gas emissions, the different
understandings of the greenhouse effect mechanism, the contribution of water vapor
to the greenhouse effect and warming, and others).
The complexity of climate system change determines that human understanding
of climate change is inevitable. Many research conclusions on climate change are not
final. Many issues need to be further studied. For example, as shown in Table 1.2, the
results of the evaluation of the causes of climate change seen in the IPCC report are
also uncertain.
“Possibility” is a term that expresses uncertainty quantitatively and is expressed
probabilistically based on observation, statistical analysis of model results, and
expert judgment.
The most comprehensive evaluation of scientific knowledge on global warming
may be the IPCC report. IPCC generally started in 1990, separated every 5 years.
According to Table 1.2, we can find that it has a different comment on climate
change and the influence of human actives, from FAR (1990), including “The
temperature would raise,” “Anthropogenic greenhouse gases can cause climate
change” to the AR5(2013) “Extremely high possibility” (over 95%), and “There is
no doubt that global warming will occur.” IPCC’s understanding of the causes and
extent of climate change is deepening. However, it is expected that damage will
26
W. Zhou