and efficient energy system must be accelerated; the risk is whether the energy
system can achieve low-carbon energy. The proportion of fossil energy in the global
primary energy needs to decline significantly from the current 85.6% to 57.8% in
2050, while the proportion of coal usage needs to reduce from the current 29% to
12.8% in 2050. The proportion of non-fossil power generation in electricity needs to
increase rapidly, from approximately 32% at present to 68% in 2050, while the
proportion of fossil energy power generation equipped with carbon capture and
storage (CCS) in 2050 needs to reach about 60%. The proportion of electricity as the
final energy source also needs to increase from 17.7% (current) to 34.3% in 2050
(Kang 2017).
On October 8, 2018, the IPCC released the Special Report “Global Warming of
1.5
C” in Incheon, South Korea (IPCC 2018). The report predicts that if the Earth
warms by 2
C (the Paris Agreement goal), there will be twice as many people facing
water shortages as a warming to 1.5
C. The additional warming will also plunge
more than 1.5 billion people into extreme heat, and hundreds of millions more
people will face infectious diseases such as malaria. The report stated that if the
global greenhouse effect develops at the current rate, between 2030 and 2052, the
world’s average temperature will be 1.5
C higher than pre-industrial revolution
levels. The report listed the impacts of global warming on the climate, including
rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems. The report pointed out that if the global
average temperature rise is to be controlled within 1.5
C, CO 2 emissions must be
reduced to 55% of 2010 levels by 2030, and actual CO 2 emissions must be reduced
to zero by 2050.
The report pointed out that the current global average temperature has risen by
approximately 1
C from pre-industrial revolution levels. If it continues to increase
at the current rate, the global average temperature will rise by 0.2
C every 10 years.
If the global average temperature rises by 2
C, the risk of heavy rains and tropical
depressions in East Asia and North America will significantly increase. Even if the
global average temperature rises by 1.5
C, in 2100, the global sea level will increase
in the range of 26–77 cm. There will be a 70–90% reduction in the area of coral reefs;
however, once the global temperature rises by 2
C, coral reefs will almost entirely
disappear. The report also details the required global energy source composition
when the global average temperature rise is controlled at 1.5
C. Renewable energy
needs to account for 70–85% of all power generation in 2050, coal power generation
must be eliminated, and natural gas power generation must use CO 2 recovery and
storage technologies (IPCC 2018).
The three trends of increasing carbon emissions, deteriorating air pollution
coupled with the weakening of the natural climate cycle, promote the acceleration
of climate change in the next 20 years. It is predicted that the frequency of extreme
weather events will far exceed expectations. As shown in Fig. 1.13, the temperature
will likely rise by more than 1.5
C in 2030 as opposed to by 2040 (Xu et al. 2018),
as predicted in the “Global Warming of 1.5
C” Special Report (IPCC 2018).
According to the “Emissions Gap Report 2019” released by the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2019, GHGs produced by human activities
have increased by an average of 1.5% per year over the past 10 years. In 2018,
1 Climate Change and Low-Carbon Society: Coping with Uncertainty
23
system can achieve low-carbon energy. The proportion of fossil energy in the global
primary energy needs to decline significantly from the current 85.6% to 57.8% in
2050, while the proportion of coal usage needs to reduce from the current 29% to
12.8% in 2050. The proportion of non-fossil power generation in electricity needs to
increase rapidly, from approximately 32% at present to 68% in 2050, while the
proportion of fossil energy power generation equipped with carbon capture and
storage (CCS) in 2050 needs to reach about 60%. The proportion of electricity as the
final energy source also needs to increase from 17.7% (current) to 34.3% in 2050
(Kang 2017).
On October 8, 2018, the IPCC released the Special Report “Global Warming of
1.5
C” in Incheon, South Korea (IPCC 2018). The report predicts that if the Earth
warms by 2
C (the Paris Agreement goal), there will be twice as many people facing
water shortages as a warming to 1.5
C. The additional warming will also plunge
more than 1.5 billion people into extreme heat, and hundreds of millions more
people will face infectious diseases such as malaria. The report stated that if the
global greenhouse effect develops at the current rate, between 2030 and 2052, the
world’s average temperature will be 1.5
C higher than pre-industrial revolution
levels. The report listed the impacts of global warming on the climate, including
rising sea levels and impacts on ecosystems. The report pointed out that if the global
average temperature rise is to be controlled within 1.5
C, CO 2 emissions must be
reduced to 55% of 2010 levels by 2030, and actual CO 2 emissions must be reduced
to zero by 2050.
The report pointed out that the current global average temperature has risen by
approximately 1
C from pre-industrial revolution levels. If it continues to increase
at the current rate, the global average temperature will rise by 0.2
C every 10 years.
If the global average temperature rises by 2
C, the risk of heavy rains and tropical
depressions in East Asia and North America will significantly increase. Even if the
global average temperature rises by 1.5
C, in 2100, the global sea level will increase
in the range of 26–77 cm. There will be a 70–90% reduction in the area of coral reefs;
however, once the global temperature rises by 2
C, coral reefs will almost entirely
disappear. The report also details the required global energy source composition
when the global average temperature rise is controlled at 1.5
C. Renewable energy
needs to account for 70–85% of all power generation in 2050, coal power generation
must be eliminated, and natural gas power generation must use CO 2 recovery and
storage technologies (IPCC 2018).
The three trends of increasing carbon emissions, deteriorating air pollution
coupled with the weakening of the natural climate cycle, promote the acceleration
of climate change in the next 20 years. It is predicted that the frequency of extreme
weather events will far exceed expectations. As shown in Fig. 1.13, the temperature
will likely rise by more than 1.5
C in 2030 as opposed to by 2040 (Xu et al. 2018),
as predicted in the “Global Warming of 1.5
C” Special Report (IPCC 2018).
According to the “Emissions Gap Report 2019” released by the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2019, GHGs produced by human activities
have increased by an average of 1.5% per year over the past 10 years. In 2018,
1 Climate Change and Low-Carbon Society: Coping with Uncertainty
23