higher than the 1950s. However, before the Holocene entered the Great Warm
Period (~2200 B.C.), there was a severe cold event, not mentioned in Zhu (1973).
This cold event is the cause of the decline of the Mesopotamian, Egyptian, and Indus
civilizations (China Meteorological Administration 2002).
The first cold period, from 1100 to 850 B.C. (early Western Zhou Dynasty),
lasted approximately 250 years.
The second warm period, from 770 B.C. to 8 A.D. (spring and autumn, warring
states, Qin, and Western Han periods), lasted approximately 230 years.
The second cold period from 25 A.D. to 600 A.D. (Eastern Han Dynasty, Three
Kingdoms, Southern and Northern Dynasties period) lasted approximately
600 years.
The third warm period, from 600 to 1000 A.D. (Sui, Tang, and early Northern
Song Dynasty), lasted approximately 400 years.
The third cold period, from 1000 to 1200 A.D. (Northern Song Dynasty and
Southern Song Dynasty periods), lasted approximately 200 years.
The fourth warm period, from 1200 to 1400 A.D. (late Southern Song Dynasty,
Yuan Dynasty), lasted approximately 200 years.
The fourth cold period, from 1400 to 1900 A.D. (Ming and Qing periods), lasted
approximately 500 years.
As shown in Fig. 1.3, the 5000-year climate change curve was wave-like, and the
reasons for climate change were different from the current temperature rise. It can be
said that it was not initially of anthropogenic origin (although there are many
opinions, this study will not demonstrate all of them here). The cause of abrupt
changes in the past climate is still under continuous research. The extent to which the
development of civilization was affected by sudden changes in climate needs further
discussion. The decline of every civilization in every region cannot be attributed to
the sudden impact of climate change.
In addition to the warm and cold periods, from 1900 to the present (since the first
industrial revolution), a period of approximately 120 years, may be referred to as the
fifth warm period.
In the 50 years from 1900 to 1950, the temperature rose by approximately 0.5
C
(Zhu’s research was until 1950). In the 60 years from 1950 to 2010, there was a total
rise of ~1
C. Since 1951, China’s climate has generally shown a warming trend,
especially since the 1980s, where temperature has been relatively high. 2007, 2015,
and 2016 were years with the highest annual average temperature records over the
past 66 years.
The warming of the climate system is beyond doubt. Since 1950, many unprecedented changes have been observed that have not occurred over hundreds or even
thousands of years. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, the amount of snow
and ice has decreased, the sea level has risen, and the concentration of GHGs have
increased.
10
W. Zhou
Period (~2200 B.C.), there was a severe cold event, not mentioned in Zhu (1973).
This cold event is the cause of the decline of the Mesopotamian, Egyptian, and Indus
civilizations (China Meteorological Administration 2002).
The first cold period, from 1100 to 850 B.C. (early Western Zhou Dynasty),
lasted approximately 250 years.
The second warm period, from 770 B.C. to 8 A.D. (spring and autumn, warring
states, Qin, and Western Han periods), lasted approximately 230 years.
The second cold period from 25 A.D. to 600 A.D. (Eastern Han Dynasty, Three
Kingdoms, Southern and Northern Dynasties period) lasted approximately
600 years.
The third warm period, from 600 to 1000 A.D. (Sui, Tang, and early Northern
Song Dynasty), lasted approximately 400 years.
The third cold period, from 1000 to 1200 A.D. (Northern Song Dynasty and
Southern Song Dynasty periods), lasted approximately 200 years.
The fourth warm period, from 1200 to 1400 A.D. (late Southern Song Dynasty,
Yuan Dynasty), lasted approximately 200 years.
The fourth cold period, from 1400 to 1900 A.D. (Ming and Qing periods), lasted
approximately 500 years.
As shown in Fig. 1.3, the 5000-year climate change curve was wave-like, and the
reasons for climate change were different from the current temperature rise. It can be
said that it was not initially of anthropogenic origin (although there are many
opinions, this study will not demonstrate all of them here). The cause of abrupt
changes in the past climate is still under continuous research. The extent to which the
development of civilization was affected by sudden changes in climate needs further
discussion. The decline of every civilization in every region cannot be attributed to
the sudden impact of climate change.
In addition to the warm and cold periods, from 1900 to the present (since the first
industrial revolution), a period of approximately 120 years, may be referred to as the
fifth warm period.
In the 50 years from 1900 to 1950, the temperature rose by approximately 0.5
C
(Zhu’s research was until 1950). In the 60 years from 1950 to 2010, there was a total
rise of ~1
C. Since 1951, China’s climate has generally shown a warming trend,
especially since the 1980s, where temperature has been relatively high. 2007, 2015,
and 2016 were years with the highest annual average temperature records over the
past 66 years.
The warming of the climate system is beyond doubt. Since 1950, many unprecedented changes have been observed that have not occurred over hundreds or even
thousands of years. The atmosphere and oceans have warmed, the amount of snow
and ice has decreased, the sea level has risen, and the concentration of GHGs have
increased.
10
W. Zhou