Carbon abatement will become easier if carbon taxes are above 200 USD/tC, but
SO 2 abatement will be less affected; SO 2 emissions may even increase to a certain
extent because of an expected expansion in coal consumption. NO x emissions in
China are also mainly from coal consumption, especially hard coal. In addition, oil
products are a large source of NO x emissions. Thus, the carbon abatement effort will
have a critical effect on NO x abatement in China. Carbon taxes have co-benefit
effects on SO 2 and NO x abatement in Japan. SO 2 abatement will benefit less than
that of NO x from carbon taxes, as existing desulfurization technologies or related
industry processes with low SO 2 emissions are widely used in Japan. Also, coal
consumption will only account for 19.0% of total primary energy consumption in
2030 in the BAU scenario; the change in coal consumption will not be as significant
as in China. For Korea, carbon taxes have a similar effect on carbon, SO 2 , and NO x
abatement, which means that a similar percentage of emissions will be abated by
imposing carbon taxes.
4.4 Conclusion
In this chapter, a G-CEEP model is used to provide an approach to analyze possible
future energy consumption structures, co-benefit effects of carbon abatement strategies on SO 2 and NO x emissions, and elucidate a roadmap to implement carbon
emission targets, in order to identify suggestions for policymakers.
We analyzed two scenarios deriving from NDC proposals: BAU and TAR. We
project primary energy consumptions; emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x ;
and associated GDP by 2050 with respect to the two scenarios, for China, Japan,
and Korea. The results show that coal remains the most important fossil fuel in China
and will account for 58.0% of energy consumption in 2030 in the BAU scenario,
deceasing to 45.2% in the TAR scenario in 2030. Hydropower and renewable energy
in 2030 will shift from 13.4% in BAU to 22.2% in TAR. Carbon intensity is reduced
by 65% in the TAR scenario in 2030, compared to 2005 levels, as suggested in
China’s NDC proposal. Primary energy consumption changes little in Japan in the
BAU scenario, due to relatively low economic growth. The share of coal, oil, and
natural gas will account for 19.0, 54.4, and 17.3%, respectively, of total primary
energy consumption by 2030 in BAU, shifting to 20.7, 41.4, and 23.3%, respectively, in TAR in 2030. Carbon intensity in 2030 also decreases from 0.09 tC per
thousand USD in BAU to 0.06 tC per thousand USD in TAR. The total primary
energy consumption of Korea will increase by 17.5% from 2020 to 2030 in the BAU
scenario, and carbon intensity in 2030 will decrease from 0.12 tC per thousand USD
in the BAU to 0.07 tC per thousand USD in the TAR. GDP losses from the BAU
scenarios will be 1.8, 1.5, and 2.4 for China, Japan, and Korea, respectively, in the
TAR scenario in 2030.
This chapter also provides an analysis of co-benefit effects under carbon abatement strategies. Carbon taxes play an important role in reducing carbon emissions
and also emissions of SO 2 and NO x , as the latter mainly derive from fossil fuel
4 Modeling the East Asian Low-Carbon Community
99
SO 2 abatement will be less affected; SO 2 emissions may even increase to a certain
extent because of an expected expansion in coal consumption. NO x emissions in
China are also mainly from coal consumption, especially hard coal. In addition, oil
products are a large source of NO x emissions. Thus, the carbon abatement effort will
have a critical effect on NO x abatement in China. Carbon taxes have co-benefit
effects on SO 2 and NO x abatement in Japan. SO 2 abatement will benefit less than
that of NO x from carbon taxes, as existing desulfurization technologies or related
industry processes with low SO 2 emissions are widely used in Japan. Also, coal
consumption will only account for 19.0% of total primary energy consumption in
2030 in the BAU scenario; the change in coal consumption will not be as significant
as in China. For Korea, carbon taxes have a similar effect on carbon, SO 2 , and NO x
abatement, which means that a similar percentage of emissions will be abated by
imposing carbon taxes.
4.4 Conclusion
In this chapter, a G-CEEP model is used to provide an approach to analyze possible
future energy consumption structures, co-benefit effects of carbon abatement strategies on SO 2 and NO x emissions, and elucidate a roadmap to implement carbon
emission targets, in order to identify suggestions for policymakers.
We analyzed two scenarios deriving from NDC proposals: BAU and TAR. We
project primary energy consumptions; emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 , and NO x ;
and associated GDP by 2050 with respect to the two scenarios, for China, Japan,
and Korea. The results show that coal remains the most important fossil fuel in China
and will account for 58.0% of energy consumption in 2030 in the BAU scenario,
deceasing to 45.2% in the TAR scenario in 2030. Hydropower and renewable energy
in 2030 will shift from 13.4% in BAU to 22.2% in TAR. Carbon intensity is reduced
by 65% in the TAR scenario in 2030, compared to 2005 levels, as suggested in
China’s NDC proposal. Primary energy consumption changes little in Japan in the
BAU scenario, due to relatively low economic growth. The share of coal, oil, and
natural gas will account for 19.0, 54.4, and 17.3%, respectively, of total primary
energy consumption by 2030 in BAU, shifting to 20.7, 41.4, and 23.3%, respectively, in TAR in 2030. Carbon intensity in 2030 also decreases from 0.09 tC per
thousand USD in BAU to 0.06 tC per thousand USD in TAR. The total primary
energy consumption of Korea will increase by 17.5% from 2020 to 2030 in the BAU
scenario, and carbon intensity in 2030 will decrease from 0.12 tC per thousand USD
in the BAU to 0.07 tC per thousand USD in the TAR. GDP losses from the BAU
scenarios will be 1.8, 1.5, and 2.4 for China, Japan, and Korea, respectively, in the
TAR scenario in 2030.
This chapter also provides an analysis of co-benefit effects under carbon abatement strategies. Carbon taxes play an important role in reducing carbon emissions
and also emissions of SO 2 and NO x , as the latter mainly derive from fossil fuel
4 Modeling the East Asian Low-Carbon Community
99