72
4 Testing and Validating Against Historic Spills
Table 4.7
Estimated mortality with ERA Acute, the performance boundaries and classification of the estimated impacts for VECs in the surface compartments
according to the performance boundaries. The number are given as percentage of the simulations falling within the different performance boundaries rounded
to nearest whole number. M is modelled oil drift data and F is field (satellites) oil drift data. The number for cetaceans is based on the calibrated values for p
beh
and p
hy (cf. Sect. 4.2.1.2)
Group
Species
Case
Oil
drift
data
Estimated mortality with
ERA acute
Performance boundaries
Classification of ERA acute
Mean
P
2.5
P
97.5
T low
L low Within L high
T low (%)
L
low
(%)
Within
(%)
L
high
(%)
T
high
(%)
Sea birds Seabirds,
four
densities
DHOS M
148,576
31,497 314,540 8,500
56,141 900,000 1,000,000 0
16 84
0
0
F
273,753
82,279 484,625
0
0
100
0
0
Common
murre
EVOS M
12,818
4,821 20,826 1,176
3,075 15,918 23,877
0
0
65
35
0
Pigeon
guillemot
EVOS M
1,411
859
2,253
135
500
1,500
2,250
0
0
61
36
3
Marine
mammals
Common
bottlenose
dolphin
DHOS M
1,175
447
2,673
870
2,046 14,222 16,845
31
62 6
0
0
F
9,796
6,256 14,092
0
0
98
2
0
Bryde’s
whale
DHOS M
0.3
0.0
1.1
0.6
0.8
9.5
11.9
80
16 3
0
0
F
7.0
1.8
16.0
0
0
69
8
23
Harbor
seal
EVOS M
195
28
685
152
227
377
452
35
37 17
6
5
Sea otter EVOS M
2,374
1,205 3,997
493
500
5,000
7,500
0
0
100
0
0
4 Testing and Validating Against Historic Spills
Table 4.7
Estimated mortality with ERA Acute, the performance boundaries and classification of the estimated impacts for VECs in the surface compartments
according to the performance boundaries. The number are given as percentage of the simulations falling within the different performance boundaries rounded
to nearest whole number. M is modelled oil drift data and F is field (satellites) oil drift data. The number for cetaceans is based on the calibrated values for p
beh
and p
hy (cf. Sect. 4.2.1.2)
Group
Species
Case
Oil
drift
data
Estimated mortality with
ERA acute
Performance boundaries
Classification of ERA acute
Mean
P
2.5
P
97.5
T low
L low Within L high
T low (%)
L
low
(%)
Within
(%)
L
high
(%)
T
high
(%)
Sea birds Seabirds,
four
densities
DHOS M
148,576
31,497 314,540 8,500
56,141 900,000 1,000,000 0
16 84
0
0
F
273,753
82,279 484,625
0
0
100
0
0
Common
murre
EVOS M
12,818
4,821 20,826 1,176
3,075 15,918 23,877
0
0
65
35
0
Pigeon
guillemot
EVOS M
1,411
859
2,253
135
500
1,500
2,250
0
0
61
36
3
Marine
mammals
Common
bottlenose
dolphin
DHOS M
1,175
447
2,673
870
2,046 14,222 16,845
31
62 6
0
0
F
9,796
6,256 14,092
0
0
98
2
0
Bryde’s
whale
DHOS M
0.3
0.0
1.1
0.6
0.8
9.5
11.9
80
16 3
0
0
F
7.0
1.8
16.0
0
0
69
8
23
Harbor
seal
EVOS M
195
28
685
152
227
377
452
35
37 17
6
5
Sea otter EVOS M
2,374
1,205 3,997
493
500
5,000
7,500
0
0
100
0
0