22 Analysis of Electric Vehicle Batteries Recoverability …
313
V O t+1
Vehicle ownership at the end of the year t + 1 [units per 1000 people]
V O t
Vehicle ownership at the end of the year t [units per 1000 people]
γ
Saturation level of the number of vehicles [units per 1000 people].
α
Parameter alpha related to the shape of the function.
β
Parameter beta related to the shape of the function.
θ
Speed of effect between the variables (0 < θ < 1).
Psc t+1,i,p,l Probability of a vehicle type i, powertrain p and year of life l to be
scrapped during the year t + 1.
Ss t+1,i
Sale share of vehicle type i during the year t + 1.
Ss t+1,p∈i
Sale share of vehicles with powertrain p in the market of the vehicle type
i during the year t + 1.
Here, the amount of returning flow of EVB can be estimated by the following
Eq. (22.9).
Lib t =
i
p
l
V Sc t,i,p,l ∗ Lib i,p,l ∗ Exp t,i,p,l
(22.9)
Lib t
Amount of LiB scrapped during the year t [kwh].
Lib i,p,l
Amount of LiB of a vehicle type i, power train p and year of life l [kwh/unit]
Exp t,i,p,l Percentage of vehicle scrapped and exported of vehicle type i, power train
p and year of life l during the year t.
22.3 Japanese Vehicle Market as a Case Study
Our study analyzes the Japanese vehicle market considering the importance of it in
term of production and sales, but also, taking in account that Japan is one of the
countries that lead the electrification of the vehicles.
Firstly, Fig. 22.2 shows the share of the future vehicles sales in Japan by type
and power train; which was elaborated considering data from the Ministry of the
Environment (Ministry of the Environment Government of Japan 2010). It is worthy
of mentioning that the share from 2009 to 2017 represents the actual values calculated
basing on reports from Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (2019).
Secondly, the number of vehicles (ownership) has been estimated through
Eq. (22.6). Here, forecasts of the Japanese GDP and the population growth of the
country, presented by the OECD (OECD 2018) and The world bank (The world
bank 2019) have been considered. Figure 22.3 shows the Japanese vehicle fleet estimated through the method mentioned above. Moreover, the current composition of
it by type and powertrain was calculated based on reports from the Next Generation
Vehicle Promotion Center (2019).
Thirdly, the vehicle scrapping rates were calculated as the percentage of vehicles
that are scrapped annually per year of use base on reports of the Automobile Inspection & Registration Information Association (Automobile Inspection & Registration
313
V O t+1
Vehicle ownership at the end of the year t + 1 [units per 1000 people]
V O t
Vehicle ownership at the end of the year t [units per 1000 people]
γ
Saturation level of the number of vehicles [units per 1000 people].
α
Parameter alpha related to the shape of the function.
β
Parameter beta related to the shape of the function.
θ
Speed of effect between the variables (0 < θ < 1).
Psc t+1,i,p,l Probability of a vehicle type i, powertrain p and year of life l to be
scrapped during the year t + 1.
Ss t+1,i
Sale share of vehicle type i during the year t + 1.
Ss t+1,p∈i
Sale share of vehicles with powertrain p in the market of the vehicle type
i during the year t + 1.
Here, the amount of returning flow of EVB can be estimated by the following
Eq. (22.9).
Lib t =
i
p
l
V Sc t,i,p,l ∗ Lib i,p,l ∗ Exp t,i,p,l
(22.9)
Lib t
Amount of LiB scrapped during the year t [kwh].
Lib i,p,l
Amount of LiB of a vehicle type i, power train p and year of life l [kwh/unit]
Exp t,i,p,l Percentage of vehicle scrapped and exported of vehicle type i, power train
p and year of life l during the year t.
22.3 Japanese Vehicle Market as a Case Study
Our study analyzes the Japanese vehicle market considering the importance of it in
term of production and sales, but also, taking in account that Japan is one of the
countries that lead the electrification of the vehicles.
Firstly, Fig. 22.2 shows the share of the future vehicles sales in Japan by type
and power train; which was elaborated considering data from the Ministry of the
Environment (Ministry of the Environment Government of Japan 2010). It is worthy
of mentioning that the share from 2009 to 2017 represents the actual values calculated
basing on reports from Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (2019).
Secondly, the number of vehicles (ownership) has been estimated through
Eq. (22.6). Here, forecasts of the Japanese GDP and the population growth of the
country, presented by the OECD (OECD 2018) and The world bank (The world
bank 2019) have been considered. Figure 22.3 shows the Japanese vehicle fleet estimated through the method mentioned above. Moreover, the current composition of
it by type and powertrain was calculated based on reports from the Next Generation
Vehicle Promotion Center (2019).
Thirdly, the vehicle scrapping rates were calculated as the percentage of vehicles
that are scrapped annually per year of use base on reports of the Automobile Inspection & Registration Information Association (Automobile Inspection & Registration