on groundwater. A report released by the Ministry of Environment and Forests
(2010) has also cautioned that the river basin can suffer from a chronic shortage of
water in the future. Most of the upper region of the Bhima sub-basin (K5), owing to
its proximity to the Western Ghats, receives abundant rainfall, but the stringent
policy and interstate tribunal obstruct the complete usage and claims to share among
the neighboring states to cater to the need caused by low rainfall situations. In
addition, the Bhima sub-basin has lingering issues of water quality and overdraft
of groundwater that hamper the basaltic aquifer (Surinaidu et al. 2013; Udmale et al.
2014) and has lacked effective monitoring of watershed management programs for
decades (Biswas 1987).
It is estimated that by 2035 the people in this region may have to depend on
external food sources because of a huge difference in food production and demand:
also, climate change may burden the water resources by influencing water demand,
exclusively in the agricultural sector (Chanapathi and Thatikonda 2020). Robust and
resilient strategies for managing the natural resources and climate change mitigation
measures for the Bhima sub-basin need to be sensitized to the local administration
through policy documents. Watershed management policies set the guidelines and
directives for the optimal utilization of resources. For instance, water policy guides
the allocation priorities for agriculture, industry, and domestic uses, as well as
awards for incentives and penalties toward conservation and detonation of water
resources. Thus, impact assessment of climate change is vital in the framework of
watershed management policies. One of the most important sources of information
for impact assessment studies is the output from general circulation models of the
climate system (Robock et al. 1993). It has been observed that the lack of research on
these events of natural or human-induced disasters, drought, and flood should be
examined to understand the past historical events. Historical trend analysis is an
important exercise that gives an idea of historical changes over a period of time in the
basin.
Historical Trend Analysis
The assessment of changes in climate with sensitive climate variables such as
maximum temperature and precipitation over the past historical period not only
picture the historical trends and changes of these climate variables but will also be
valuable evidence in future to compare and contrast the climate changes. The
magnitude and the statistical significance of the historical trend in the aforementioned climate variables with reference to climate change are ascertained by the
nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend test. Mann (1945) presented this nonparametric
test for randomness against time, which constitutes a particular application of
Kendall’s test (Kendall 1975) for correlation, usually identified as the Mann–Kendall (MK) test.
22
N. S. Patil and R. S. Laddimath
(2010) has also cautioned that the river basin can suffer from a chronic shortage of
water in the future. Most of the upper region of the Bhima sub-basin (K5), owing to
its proximity to the Western Ghats, receives abundant rainfall, but the stringent
policy and interstate tribunal obstruct the complete usage and claims to share among
the neighboring states to cater to the need caused by low rainfall situations. In
addition, the Bhima sub-basin has lingering issues of water quality and overdraft
of groundwater that hamper the basaltic aquifer (Surinaidu et al. 2013; Udmale et al.
2014) and has lacked effective monitoring of watershed management programs for
decades (Biswas 1987).
It is estimated that by 2035 the people in this region may have to depend on
external food sources because of a huge difference in food production and demand:
also, climate change may burden the water resources by influencing water demand,
exclusively in the agricultural sector (Chanapathi and Thatikonda 2020). Robust and
resilient strategies for managing the natural resources and climate change mitigation
measures for the Bhima sub-basin need to be sensitized to the local administration
through policy documents. Watershed management policies set the guidelines and
directives for the optimal utilization of resources. For instance, water policy guides
the allocation priorities for agriculture, industry, and domestic uses, as well as
awards for incentives and penalties toward conservation and detonation of water
resources. Thus, impact assessment of climate change is vital in the framework of
watershed management policies. One of the most important sources of information
for impact assessment studies is the output from general circulation models of the
climate system (Robock et al. 1993). It has been observed that the lack of research on
these events of natural or human-induced disasters, drought, and flood should be
examined to understand the past historical events. Historical trend analysis is an
important exercise that gives an idea of historical changes over a period of time in the
basin.
Historical Trend Analysis
The assessment of changes in climate with sensitive climate variables such as
maximum temperature and precipitation over the past historical period not only
picture the historical trends and changes of these climate variables but will also be
valuable evidence in future to compare and contrast the climate changes. The
magnitude and the statistical significance of the historical trend in the aforementioned climate variables with reference to climate change are ascertained by the
nonparametric Mann–Kendall trend test. Mann (1945) presented this nonparametric
test for randomness against time, which constitutes a particular application of
Kendall’s test (Kendall 1975) for correlation, usually identified as the Mann–Kendall (MK) test.
22
N. S. Patil and R. S. Laddimath