Trends in Maximum Temperature
Temperature is an important climate variable in assessing the impact of increasing
global warming, and human-induced global warming is a key component in the
management of water resources over a river basin (Jhajharia et al. 2014). Therefore,
examining temperature trends is an important manifestation of global climate
change. Annual and daily temperature events were examined to detect the variability
and trends of temperature for 1969–2005. Spatial plots (Fig. 2.2a, b) illustrate the
average daily maximum temperature and maximum temperature, respectively, in
degrees Celsius (
C) over the Bhima sub-basin for the period 1969–2005.
It can be inferred from these figures that both upward and downward trends were
experienced for maximum temperature at upper and lower regions of the Bhima
sub-basin. The maximum temperature recorded for the basin was 45
C with most of
the region on Lower Bhima (K6) in this category. The average daily temperature for
most of the lower region is 33
C, whereas the Upper Bhima (K5) experiences
relatively less heat as the maximum temperature recorded during this period is 42
C
with an average daily maximum temperature of 32
C.
The trend of the mean daily maximum temperature and the average annual
maximum temperature over the basin is increasing consistently. The M-K trend
test for mean daily maximum temperature (Fig. 2.2c) in the upper region of the basin
has shown the maximum positive tau (τ) value, indicating a trend of increasing
temperature. The daily maximum temperature trend line has been increasing
Fig. 2.2 (a) Average daily maximum temperature (in
C); (b) maximum temperature (in
C); (c)
M-K trend test tau values; (d) mean daily maximum temperature series. Linear best fit indicated by
dotted line
2 Regional Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change: A Statistical Downscaling. . .
23
Temperature is an important climate variable in assessing the impact of increasing
global warming, and human-induced global warming is a key component in the
management of water resources over a river basin (Jhajharia et al. 2014). Therefore,
examining temperature trends is an important manifestation of global climate
change. Annual and daily temperature events were examined to detect the variability
and trends of temperature for 1969–2005. Spatial plots (Fig. 2.2a, b) illustrate the
average daily maximum temperature and maximum temperature, respectively, in
degrees Celsius (
C) over the Bhima sub-basin for the period 1969–2005.
It can be inferred from these figures that both upward and downward trends were
experienced for maximum temperature at upper and lower regions of the Bhima
sub-basin. The maximum temperature recorded for the basin was 45
C with most of
the region on Lower Bhima (K6) in this category. The average daily temperature for
most of the lower region is 33
C, whereas the Upper Bhima (K5) experiences
relatively less heat as the maximum temperature recorded during this period is 42
C
with an average daily maximum temperature of 32
C.
The trend of the mean daily maximum temperature and the average annual
maximum temperature over the basin is increasing consistently. The M-K trend
test for mean daily maximum temperature (Fig. 2.2c) in the upper region of the basin
has shown the maximum positive tau (τ) value, indicating a trend of increasing
temperature. The daily maximum temperature trend line has been increasing
Fig. 2.2 (a) Average daily maximum temperature (in
C); (b) maximum temperature (in
C); (c)
M-K trend test tau values; (d) mean daily maximum temperature series. Linear best fit indicated by
dotted line
2 Regional Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change: A Statistical Downscaling. . .
23