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nature02959
1940s
preindustrial
global mean temperature
0
0
1
2
>
s
0
3
0
2
s
0
8
9
1
without LLGHG emission reductions
with LLGHG emission reductions
only aerosol reduction
LLGHG and aerosol reduction
0 . 3 – 0 . 4 ° C / d e c a d e
Imagine: only LLGHG present in the atmosphere
In reality: LLGHG and air pollutants present
Aerosol in Global Atmosphere, Fig. 22 The figure
shows schematically the climate consequences of climate
change and air pollution abatement strategies. The only
way to reach global temperature stabilization is through
LLGHG reductions. Such stabilization would be achieved
according to the timescales mainly related to the several
decade lifetime of LLGHG in the atmosphere. Reduction
of air pollution (including that resulting from LLGHG
emission reductions) would have a more immediate impact
on global warming. Air pollutants have lifetimes of weeks
to months, and the climate system would realize, in about
5 years, 50% of the global warming caused by their reduction [98]. Air pollutant reductions are expected to accelerate the increase in global mean temperature in the short
term (<30 years), on the way to eventual long-term
(>100 years) climate stabilization. (Copyright Elsevier
2009. Reprinted from [99])
274
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