2
Application
Mechanical
of Probability to
Design
I. PROBABILITY
Probability, to anyone who deals with concrete ideas of whether a part or
system will function, is not an exact science. Even after a probability is calculated it is not certain exactly what information the individual has to work
with or needs. We start our discussion with
¯
F/A
~°(A) = llm -0 < ,°(A) < 1
(2.1)
N-,~ N
-
-
Now P(A) is probability of A even occurring
N is total number of events in which A can be the outcome
nA is the number of events in which A is the outcome.
P (A) can also be thought of as an archery target area where the small area
n,~ is the bullseye (Fig. 2.1) and represents the area where A happens
Figure 2.1 Probability of hitting a bullseye.
39
Application
Mechanical
of Probability to
Design
I. PROBABILITY
Probability, to anyone who deals with concrete ideas of whether a part or
system will function, is not an exact science. Even after a probability is calculated it is not certain exactly what information the individual has to work
with or needs. We start our discussion with
¯
F/A
~°(A) = llm -0 < ,°(A) < 1
(2.1)
N-,~ N
-
-
Now P(A) is probability of A even occurring
N is total number of events in which A can be the outcome
nA is the number of events in which A is the outcome.
P (A) can also be thought of as an archery target area where the small area
n,~ is the bullseye (Fig. 2.1) and represents the area where A happens
Figure 2.1 Probability of hitting a bullseye.
39