73 Multi-model Assessment of Air Pollution-Related Premature …
465
73.3 Results and Conclusions
The MM mean and standard deviations from the twelve-model ensemble for different
health outcomes are presented in Table 73.1. Results show that in Europe, the MM
mean number of premature deaths due to air pollution is calculated to be ~400 000
± 100 000, that agrees with the WHO estimate of 482 000. Estimated health impacts
among different models can vary up to a factor of 3. PM 2.5 is calculated to be the
major pollutant affecting the health impacts and the differences in models regarding
the treatment of aerosol composition, physics and dynamics is a key factor. The
geographical distribution of the total premature death in 2010 as calculated by the
MM mean is presented in Fig. 73.1. In Europe, the largest number of cases are
simulated to be in emission hot spots such as the Po Valley and the Benelux, as
well as megacities such as London, Paris, Berlin and Athens. In North America,
the premature death cases are mainly simulated over New York, Chicago, Detroit,
Houston, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
The total MM mean costs due to health impacts of air pollution are estimated
to be 400 billion e in Europe. Finally, the scenario with a 20% reduction in global
anthropogenic emissions leads to a decrease of 18% of all health outcomes.
Results from the emission perturbation scenarios showed that a 20% reduction of
global anthropogenic emissions avoids 54 000 (13%) and 27 500 (17%) premature
deaths in Europe and the U.S., respectively. A 20% reduction of North American
emissions avoids ~1 000 (0.2%) premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 (16%)
premature deaths in the U.S., while a 20% decrease of emissions within the European
source region avoids 47 000 (11%) premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the East
Asian emission by 20% avoids ~2000 (1%) premature deaths in the U.S. These results
show that the domestic emissions have the largest impacts on premature death, while
foreign sources are a minor contributor to adverse impacts of air pollution.
QUESTIONER 1: Sebnem Aksoyoglu
QUESTION: In AQMEII, only anthropogenic emissions were harmonized, biogenic
emissions were not. Is there any plan to check the effects of using different biogenic
emissions on results or any future plans to harmonize biogenic emissions?
Table 73.1 MM mean health outcomes of air pollution in Europe and North America
Health outcomes
Europe
North America
Chronic bronchitis (CB)
360 ± 89
142 ± 74
Respiratory hospital admissions (RHA)
23 ± 5
10 ± 4
Cerebrovascular hospital admissions (CHA)
46 ± 11
19 ± 10
Congestive heart failure (CHF)
31 ± 6
13 ± 6
Lung cancer (LC)
55 ± 14
22 ± 11
Premature death (PD)
414 ± 98
165 ± 76
Infant mortality (IM)
403 ± 99
143 ± 75
465
73.3 Results and Conclusions
The MM mean and standard deviations from the twelve-model ensemble for different
health outcomes are presented in Table 73.1. Results show that in Europe, the MM
mean number of premature deaths due to air pollution is calculated to be ~400 000
± 100 000, that agrees with the WHO estimate of 482 000. Estimated health impacts
among different models can vary up to a factor of 3. PM 2.5 is calculated to be the
major pollutant affecting the health impacts and the differences in models regarding
the treatment of aerosol composition, physics and dynamics is a key factor. The
geographical distribution of the total premature death in 2010 as calculated by the
MM mean is presented in Fig. 73.1. In Europe, the largest number of cases are
simulated to be in emission hot spots such as the Po Valley and the Benelux, as
well as megacities such as London, Paris, Berlin and Athens. In North America,
the premature death cases are mainly simulated over New York, Chicago, Detroit,
Houston, Los Angeles and San Francisco.
The total MM mean costs due to health impacts of air pollution are estimated
to be 400 billion e in Europe. Finally, the scenario with a 20% reduction in global
anthropogenic emissions leads to a decrease of 18% of all health outcomes.
Results from the emission perturbation scenarios showed that a 20% reduction of
global anthropogenic emissions avoids 54 000 (13%) and 27 500 (17%) premature
deaths in Europe and the U.S., respectively. A 20% reduction of North American
emissions avoids ~1 000 (0.2%) premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 (16%)
premature deaths in the U.S., while a 20% decrease of emissions within the European
source region avoids 47 000 (11%) premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the East
Asian emission by 20% avoids ~2000 (1%) premature deaths in the U.S. These results
show that the domestic emissions have the largest impacts on premature death, while
foreign sources are a minor contributor to adverse impacts of air pollution.
QUESTIONER 1: Sebnem Aksoyoglu
QUESTION: In AQMEII, only anthropogenic emissions were harmonized, biogenic
emissions were not. Is there any plan to check the effects of using different biogenic
emissions on results or any future plans to harmonize biogenic emissions?
Table 73.1 MM mean health outcomes of air pollution in Europe and North America
Health outcomes
Europe
North America
Chronic bronchitis (CB)
360 ± 89
142 ± 74
Respiratory hospital admissions (RHA)
23 ± 5
10 ± 4
Cerebrovascular hospital admissions (CHA)
46 ± 11
19 ± 10
Congestive heart failure (CHF)
31 ± 6
13 ± 6
Lung cancer (LC)
55 ± 14
22 ± 11
Premature death (PD)
414 ± 98
165 ± 76
Infant mortality (IM)
403 ± 99
143 ± 75