72
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and I. A. El Ghandour
the port of Abu Qir in 1992 and the port of Damietta in 1997. An electric powergenerating station was established in 1998 in El-Arish. Additionally, a device was set
up to measure the height of the waves on the Red Sea, and 11 automatic measuring
devices were installed along the Suez Canal.
Egypt depends on obtaining data on the evolution of sea level rise on the Egyptian
coast, temperature rise, rainfall, surface flow of the Nile waters and the amount of
water that could reach the country as a natural flow of the River Nile. All of these
activities require the constant monitoring of many aerial and ground variables, which
may be within the country or abroad, particularly in the Nile Basin countries.
7 Climate Change Modeling in Egypt
Mathematical models have been used in Egypt to identify the impacts of climate
change on water resources. Elshemy [46] used models and scenarios to study the
impact of climate change on hydrodynamics and water quality of Lake Nubia. He
used a proposed hydrodynamic and water quality model, which simulates three periods: I (2010–2039), II (2040–2069), and III (2070–2099)—with two emission scenarios, A2 and B1, for each period, including the average of 11 GCMs outputs. A
theoretical process algorithm has been simplified and further developed to modify
the initial conditions input file of dissolved oxygen due to GCC effects, the impacts
of climate change on hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of Lake Nubia
were investigated. It is emphasized that the calibration and the scenarios cover only a
short period of 2 weeks of simulation. This is due to the limited availability of historical data. Consequently the results and quantified effects do not reflect the variability
of hydrodynamics and water quality extending over 1 year or even longer periods.
The hydrodynamic characteristics studied include water surface levels, evaporative
water losses, and reservoir thermal structure. The water quality parameters of the
study include pH, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, orthophosphate, nitrate–nitrite,
ammonium, total dissolved solids, and total suspended solids. The results showed that
hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of Lake Nubia would be significantly
impacted by projected climate change.
Also identifies a critical need for developing a regional climate change, model for
the Nile Basin and acquiring long-term records of hydrodynamic and water quality
characteristics of the Aswan High Dam Reservoir for detailed investigation of climate
change impacts [46].
The sensitivity of Nile flows to climate change is strongly affected by increasing
the temperature due to climate change. Scenarios of the effect of climate change on
the Nile flows using three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to estimate future Nile
flows. Strzepek et al. [47], developed ten different scenarios for Nile flows. Nine of
the ten predict reductions in Nile flows from 10 to 90% by the year 2095. Even in the
short term, by 2025 losses are estimated at 5–50% [48], Based on investigated hydrometeorological impacts of climate change in the River Nile Basin using different
M. A. S. Abdel Monem and I. A. El Ghandour
the port of Abu Qir in 1992 and the port of Damietta in 1997. An electric powergenerating station was established in 1998 in El-Arish. Additionally, a device was set
up to measure the height of the waves on the Red Sea, and 11 automatic measuring
devices were installed along the Suez Canal.
Egypt depends on obtaining data on the evolution of sea level rise on the Egyptian
coast, temperature rise, rainfall, surface flow of the Nile waters and the amount of
water that could reach the country as a natural flow of the River Nile. All of these
activities require the constant monitoring of many aerial and ground variables, which
may be within the country or abroad, particularly in the Nile Basin countries.
7 Climate Change Modeling in Egypt
Mathematical models have been used in Egypt to identify the impacts of climate
change on water resources. Elshemy [46] used models and scenarios to study the
impact of climate change on hydrodynamics and water quality of Lake Nubia. He
used a proposed hydrodynamic and water quality model, which simulates three periods: I (2010–2039), II (2040–2069), and III (2070–2099)—with two emission scenarios, A2 and B1, for each period, including the average of 11 GCMs outputs. A
theoretical process algorithm has been simplified and further developed to modify
the initial conditions input file of dissolved oxygen due to GCC effects, the impacts
of climate change on hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of Lake Nubia
were investigated. It is emphasized that the calibration and the scenarios cover only a
short period of 2 weeks of simulation. This is due to the limited availability of historical data. Consequently the results and quantified effects do not reflect the variability
of hydrodynamics and water quality extending over 1 year or even longer periods.
The hydrodynamic characteristics studied include water surface levels, evaporative
water losses, and reservoir thermal structure. The water quality parameters of the
study include pH, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, orthophosphate, nitrate–nitrite,
ammonium, total dissolved solids, and total suspended solids. The results showed that
hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of Lake Nubia would be significantly
impacted by projected climate change.
Also identifies a critical need for developing a regional climate change, model for
the Nile Basin and acquiring long-term records of hydrodynamic and water quality
characteristics of the Aswan High Dam Reservoir for detailed investigation of climate
change impacts [46].
The sensitivity of Nile flows to climate change is strongly affected by increasing
the temperature due to climate change. Scenarios of the effect of climate change on
the Nile flows using three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to estimate future Nile
flows. Strzepek et al. [47], developed ten different scenarios for Nile flows. Nine of
the ten predict reductions in Nile flows from 10 to 90% by the year 2095. Even in the
short term, by 2025 losses are estimated at 5–50% [48], Based on investigated hydrometeorological impacts of climate change in the River Nile Basin using different