Climate Impact on Egyptian Agriculture: An Efficiency …
605
average temperatures increase from about 20 °C on the Mediterranean coastline to
24 °C. Normal maximum daytime temperature range from 30 °C in Alexandria on the
Mediterranean coastline to 41 °C at Aswan near the borders with Sudan. However,
there is a general warming trend since 1960 with warmer summers. Additionally,
during the period 1960–2003, a general increase in the number of warning nights
and a decrease in the frequency of cold nights. The projected increase towards 2030
there will be an increase by 1.0°–1.27 °C using the forecast models RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 median ensemble, while the projected 2050 increase range from 1.64 to
2.33 °C using the forecast models RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 median ensemble [9].
The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climatic variables on the
technical efficiency of the cereal crops production for the most significant five producing governorates in Egypt for the period of 2000–2009. This objective will be
achieved through using panel frontier model to assess the impact of average maximum temperature, humidity and solar radiation on the technical efficiency of the
highest cereals producing governorates (Behera, Gharbia, Kafr-Elsheikh, Dakahlia,
and Sharkia). The contribution of this work is twofold: first, it focuses on the Egyptian agricultural, in contrast to the predominant literature, developing countries have
not received much attention. Second, we compare efficiency scores among different
governorates to propose suitable policies that match their needs.
2 The State of Climate Change in Egypt
Agricultural production is hugely reliant on climate and profoundly impacted by climate variability. For this reason, the FAO Global Early Warning System FAO-GIEWS
is dedicated to monitor food demand and supply globally together with providing
indicators measuring climate-induced impacts through the Earth Observation for
Crop Monitoring [10]. An example of these indicators are the annual Agricultural
Stress Index (ASI) that represent the arable land percentage that was affected by
drought conditions over an entire cropping season was explicitly designed to meet
the need for information like the drought that will be provided only timely basis
about affected agricultural zones. Drought Intensity (DI) represents the higher the
drought severity. The lower the vegetation health over the entire cropping season.
The Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is a composite index that combines both the
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI). The
TCI relates the current temperature to the long-term maximum and minimum, based
on the assumption that higher temperatures cause negative impacts on the vegetation
conditions. The VHI relates the vegetation conditions with temperatures, for example, a decrease in VHI means poorer vegetation condition and higher temperatures
signifying stressed vegetation conditions, and an indication of drought over a more
extended period.
605
average temperatures increase from about 20 °C on the Mediterranean coastline to
24 °C. Normal maximum daytime temperature range from 30 °C in Alexandria on the
Mediterranean coastline to 41 °C at Aswan near the borders with Sudan. However,
there is a general warming trend since 1960 with warmer summers. Additionally,
during the period 1960–2003, a general increase in the number of warning nights
and a decrease in the frequency of cold nights. The projected increase towards 2030
there will be an increase by 1.0°–1.27 °C using the forecast models RCP4.5 and
RCP8.5 median ensemble, while the projected 2050 increase range from 1.64 to
2.33 °C using the forecast models RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 median ensemble [9].
The objective of this study is to assess the impact of climatic variables on the
technical efficiency of the cereal crops production for the most significant five producing governorates in Egypt for the period of 2000–2009. This objective will be
achieved through using panel frontier model to assess the impact of average maximum temperature, humidity and solar radiation on the technical efficiency of the
highest cereals producing governorates (Behera, Gharbia, Kafr-Elsheikh, Dakahlia,
and Sharkia). The contribution of this work is twofold: first, it focuses on the Egyptian agricultural, in contrast to the predominant literature, developing countries have
not received much attention. Second, we compare efficiency scores among different
governorates to propose suitable policies that match their needs.
2 The State of Climate Change in Egypt
Agricultural production is hugely reliant on climate and profoundly impacted by climate variability. For this reason, the FAO Global Early Warning System FAO-GIEWS
is dedicated to monitor food demand and supply globally together with providing
indicators measuring climate-induced impacts through the Earth Observation for
Crop Monitoring [10]. An example of these indicators are the annual Agricultural
Stress Index (ASI) that represent the arable land percentage that was affected by
drought conditions over an entire cropping season was explicitly designed to meet
the need for information like the drought that will be provided only timely basis
about affected agricultural zones. Drought Intensity (DI) represents the higher the
drought severity. The lower the vegetation health over the entire cropping season.
The Vegetation Health Index (VHI) is a composite index that combines both the
Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and the Temperature Condition Index (TCI). The
TCI relates the current temperature to the long-term maximum and minimum, based
on the assumption that higher temperatures cause negative impacts on the vegetation
conditions. The VHI relates the vegetation conditions with temperatures, for example, a decrease in VHI means poorer vegetation condition and higher temperatures
signifying stressed vegetation conditions, and an indication of drought over a more
extended period.