Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Communities’ …
555
Climate change would increase the field crops’ water requirements by 2%, while
urbanization would decrease it by about 2.7%. However, climate change impacts are
dependent on the availability of adequate irrigation water. Any reduction in Egypt’s
water supply—due to environmental and physical causes, such as rain reduction on
the Ethiopian highlands and/or the potential water shortage due to the GERD construction, and increased ET of field crops in Egypt—would increase the severity
of annual crop yield deficiencies affecting farmers (landowners and laborers) [26].
This might induce tension among farmers competing over irrigation water and in
turn harm the social stability [9]. All landowners and some laborers (about 0.03%)
are to be affected by climate change, while the impact of urbanization is to be more
severe on laborers as it would reduce the working days by about 2.5% of total field
crops’ working days in Egypt.
Furthermore, agricultural land reduction and increased agricultural land fragmentation would increase the intensity by which farmers cultivate and service their small
land plots that make it prone for other environmental damages. At the same time,
climate change impacts on agriculture, in terms of decrease of field crops’ production and net value, might accelerate urbanization on agricultural land, especially in
marginal areas [9].
Finally, the review of farmers’ and Nile Delta governorates’ adaptive capacities
shows that climate change is to significantly affect Alexandria and Ismailia by reducing their field crops’ production and net value. Nevertheless, the most vulnerable
governorate to climate change due to its poor assets is to be Beheira. Its adaptation process would be hampered by the large number of the rural population to be
affected, small size of landownership, illiteracy and poverty of farmers [20] and
their inadequate access to VEW and funding sources. Additionally, the losses of
Beheira governorate would have a large impact on the national level due to its share
of field crops’ agricultural land area, production in tons, net value and farmers’
(women and men) percentage of total Egypt. The vulnerability of Beheira might further be affected by potential food price increases and lack of job opportunities, both
in Egypt and abroad [88].
6 Recommendations
Agriculture in Egypt is a main source of food, income and employment for about
50% of the Egyptian population, thus, it should receive appropriate attention from
the policy makers to preserve it for future generations, either from man-made and/or
environmental challenges.
Urban expansion on agricultural land is a current challenge that requires immediate attention to contain its growth—through law enforcement and the provision of
alternative affordable housing [32]—or it would severely reduce agricultural land in
the Nile Delta and thus could exacerbate the projected impacts of climate change.
555
Climate change would increase the field crops’ water requirements by 2%, while
urbanization would decrease it by about 2.7%. However, climate change impacts are
dependent on the availability of adequate irrigation water. Any reduction in Egypt’s
water supply—due to environmental and physical causes, such as rain reduction on
the Ethiopian highlands and/or the potential water shortage due to the GERD construction, and increased ET of field crops in Egypt—would increase the severity
of annual crop yield deficiencies affecting farmers (landowners and laborers) [26].
This might induce tension among farmers competing over irrigation water and in
turn harm the social stability [9]. All landowners and some laborers (about 0.03%)
are to be affected by climate change, while the impact of urbanization is to be more
severe on laborers as it would reduce the working days by about 2.5% of total field
crops’ working days in Egypt.
Furthermore, agricultural land reduction and increased agricultural land fragmentation would increase the intensity by which farmers cultivate and service their small
land plots that make it prone for other environmental damages. At the same time,
climate change impacts on agriculture, in terms of decrease of field crops’ production and net value, might accelerate urbanization on agricultural land, especially in
marginal areas [9].
Finally, the review of farmers’ and Nile Delta governorates’ adaptive capacities
shows that climate change is to significantly affect Alexandria and Ismailia by reducing their field crops’ production and net value. Nevertheless, the most vulnerable
governorate to climate change due to its poor assets is to be Beheira. Its adaptation process would be hampered by the large number of the rural population to be
affected, small size of landownership, illiteracy and poverty of farmers [20] and
their inadequate access to VEW and funding sources. Additionally, the losses of
Beheira governorate would have a large impact on the national level due to its share
of field crops’ agricultural land area, production in tons, net value and farmers’
(women and men) percentage of total Egypt. The vulnerability of Beheira might further be affected by potential food price increases and lack of job opportunities, both
in Egypt and abroad [88].
6 Recommendations
Agriculture in Egypt is a main source of food, income and employment for about
50% of the Egyptian population, thus, it should receive appropriate attention from
the policy makers to preserve it for future generations, either from man-made and/or
environmental challenges.
Urban expansion on agricultural land is a current challenge that requires immediate attention to contain its growth—through law enforcement and the provision of
alternative affordable housing [32]—or it would severely reduce agricultural land in
the Nile Delta and thus could exacerbate the projected impacts of climate change.