Climate Change, Agriculture and Rural Communities’ …
541
Impact on Employment (Landowners and Laborers)
Temperature increase is to affect all agricultural landowners cultivating field crops
in the Nile Delta governorates. For the determination of the number of landowners
to be affected, the agricultural land is divided by the average landownership by governorate. Accordingly, about 3 million landowners (when accounting for population
growth the number of affected landowners would be about 3.5 million by 2030) are
to be affected in the Nile Delta governorates.
To compensate their loss, landowners could resort to intensification, either by
increasing the use of labor and/or fertilizers that in turn would increase the cost they
would incur and reduce the net income they receive [55]. On the other hand, labor
days per feddan are expected to increase because of intensification as well as due to
the potential migration of pests to Egypt that would require fighting to prevent them
from further harming the field crops’ yields (resulting from increased temperature)
[47, 56]. Thus, labor intensification strategy and pest-fighting might contribute to the
increase in the number of agricultural working days per governorate.
4.2.2 Impact of Sea-Level-Rise (SLR)
According to scenario (B1) the Nile Delta regions to be affected by SLR are the
Northeast and the North Middle Delta regions. These are composed of four governorates. The Northeast Delta region is composed of Damietta, Daqahlia and Sharkia;
while the North middle Delta region is composed of Kafr El-Sheikh governorate.
The impact of SLR in these governorates is explored on the field crops’ agricultural
land area, production, net value and employment.
Impact on Field Crops’ Agricultural Land Area
The middle impact scenario (B1) would reduce the field crops’ agricultural land area
by 0.04% of total field crops’ area in Egypt. Damietta, Daqahlia and Sharkia governorates constituting the Northeast Delta Region would lose a total of about 620
feddan in both cases; protected and unprotected. For the analysis, it is assumed that
the loss of agricultural land would be equally distributed between the governorates.
Accordingly, every governorate would lose about 207 feddan. This area equals different cropping areas in the governorates based on their respective average cropping
intensity (see Table 9 in Annex for Land intensity by governorate). Multiplying the
cropping intensity by governorate by 207 feddan shows that Damietta would lose
a cropping area of 341.5 feddan, in Daqahlia the lost cropping area would equal
364.3 feddan, while in Sharkia it would equal 372.6 feddan. Thus, the 620 feddan
would equal a total of 1078.4 feddan cropping area that is subtracted from the field
crops area based on their respective share of the total agricultural cropping area per
governorate.
541
Impact on Employment (Landowners and Laborers)
Temperature increase is to affect all agricultural landowners cultivating field crops
in the Nile Delta governorates. For the determination of the number of landowners
to be affected, the agricultural land is divided by the average landownership by governorate. Accordingly, about 3 million landowners (when accounting for population
growth the number of affected landowners would be about 3.5 million by 2030) are
to be affected in the Nile Delta governorates.
To compensate their loss, landowners could resort to intensification, either by
increasing the use of labor and/or fertilizers that in turn would increase the cost they
would incur and reduce the net income they receive [55]. On the other hand, labor
days per feddan are expected to increase because of intensification as well as due to
the potential migration of pests to Egypt that would require fighting to prevent them
from further harming the field crops’ yields (resulting from increased temperature)
[47, 56]. Thus, labor intensification strategy and pest-fighting might contribute to the
increase in the number of agricultural working days per governorate.
4.2.2 Impact of Sea-Level-Rise (SLR)
According to scenario (B1) the Nile Delta regions to be affected by SLR are the
Northeast and the North Middle Delta regions. These are composed of four governorates. The Northeast Delta region is composed of Damietta, Daqahlia and Sharkia;
while the North middle Delta region is composed of Kafr El-Sheikh governorate.
The impact of SLR in these governorates is explored on the field crops’ agricultural
land area, production, net value and employment.
Impact on Field Crops’ Agricultural Land Area
The middle impact scenario (B1) would reduce the field crops’ agricultural land area
by 0.04% of total field crops’ area in Egypt. Damietta, Daqahlia and Sharkia governorates constituting the Northeast Delta Region would lose a total of about 620
feddan in both cases; protected and unprotected. For the analysis, it is assumed that
the loss of agricultural land would be equally distributed between the governorates.
Accordingly, every governorate would lose about 207 feddan. This area equals different cropping areas in the governorates based on their respective average cropping
intensity (see Table 9 in Annex for Land intensity by governorate). Multiplying the
cropping intensity by governorate by 207 feddan shows that Damietta would lose
a cropping area of 341.5 feddan, in Daqahlia the lost cropping area would equal
364.3 feddan, while in Sharkia it would equal 372.6 feddan. Thus, the 620 feddan
would equal a total of 1078.4 feddan cropping area that is subtracted from the field
crops area based on their respective share of the total agricultural cropping area per
governorate.