540
D. M. Gouda
on 2015 data). This increase is to mainly benefit Kafr El-Sheikh, and Beheira governorates as cotton covers 7.1% and 3.5% of their respective agricultural land areas
(see Table 12 in Annex for Percentage of field crops’ groups area by governorate).
Moreover, the production of strategic field crops
9 is to suffer as the cereals production is to decrease by 5%, sugar crops production by 0.3%, and oil crops production
by about 1.1% of their total production in Egypt based on 2015 data. This is to affect
almost all Nile Delta governorates; however, Daqahlia, Sharkia and Qalyubia governorates are to be affected the most as about 70% of their agricultural land is covered
with strategic crops (see Table 13 in Annex for Percentage of field crops’ groups
production by governorate).
This percentage reduction in production assumes the availability of the necessary
water requirements as the temperature increase would increase water requirements
per field crop per feddan. Water shortage would exacerbate the field crops’ yield
deficiency. The cultivation of the field crops’ in the Nile Delta governorates in 2030
(under B1 scenario), would increase the field crops’ water requirements by about
2% of the total field crops water requirements in Egypt based on 2015 data that is
equivalent to about 0.7 billion m
3 .
Impact on Field Crops’ Net Value
The total field crops’ net value in the Nile Delta governorates is expected to decrease
by about 5% of the total field crops’ net value in Egypt based on 2015 data. The net
value of clover is to be affected, with a decrease of about 7%, followed by vegetables
with a net value reduction of 6%, and medicinal crops with a reduction of about 5%,
while the net value of cotton is to increase by about 11% of the total net value of
cotton in Egypt based on 2015 data. The governorates to be affected the most due
to these reductions are: Damietta and Menufia as about 50% and 40% of their field
crops’ net value respectively comes from clover. Alexandria and Ismailia as about
70% and 65% of their total field crops’ net value comes from vegetables. Daqahlia
and Sharkia as their net value from cereals is about 50% and 40% respectively (see
Table 14 in Annex for Percentage of net value per field crop by governorate).
Based on the average yield per field crop per feddan per governorate the farm level
income would differ from one governorate to the other, which would consequently
affect the livelihood of farmers (see Tables 15 and 16 in Annex for Average yield
per field crop per feddan per governorate without and with temperature increase).
9 For the Egyptian government, wheat, sugar crops, and oil crops are considered strategic crops that
are important for the Egyptian populations’ diet and clover for livestock breeding (meat production),
see [24].
D. M. Gouda
on 2015 data). This increase is to mainly benefit Kafr El-Sheikh, and Beheira governorates as cotton covers 7.1% and 3.5% of their respective agricultural land areas
(see Table 12 in Annex for Percentage of field crops’ groups area by governorate).
Moreover, the production of strategic field crops
9 is to suffer as the cereals production is to decrease by 5%, sugar crops production by 0.3%, and oil crops production
by about 1.1% of their total production in Egypt based on 2015 data. This is to affect
almost all Nile Delta governorates; however, Daqahlia, Sharkia and Qalyubia governorates are to be affected the most as about 70% of their agricultural land is covered
with strategic crops (see Table 13 in Annex for Percentage of field crops’ groups
production by governorate).
This percentage reduction in production assumes the availability of the necessary
water requirements as the temperature increase would increase water requirements
per field crop per feddan. Water shortage would exacerbate the field crops’ yield
deficiency. The cultivation of the field crops’ in the Nile Delta governorates in 2030
(under B1 scenario), would increase the field crops’ water requirements by about
2% of the total field crops water requirements in Egypt based on 2015 data that is
equivalent to about 0.7 billion m
3 .
Impact on Field Crops’ Net Value
The total field crops’ net value in the Nile Delta governorates is expected to decrease
by about 5% of the total field crops’ net value in Egypt based on 2015 data. The net
value of clover is to be affected, with a decrease of about 7%, followed by vegetables
with a net value reduction of 6%, and medicinal crops with a reduction of about 5%,
while the net value of cotton is to increase by about 11% of the total net value of
cotton in Egypt based on 2015 data. The governorates to be affected the most due
to these reductions are: Damietta and Menufia as about 50% and 40% of their field
crops’ net value respectively comes from clover. Alexandria and Ismailia as about
70% and 65% of their total field crops’ net value comes from vegetables. Daqahlia
and Sharkia as their net value from cereals is about 50% and 40% respectively (see
Table 14 in Annex for Percentage of net value per field crop by governorate).
Based on the average yield per field crop per feddan per governorate the farm level
income would differ from one governorate to the other, which would consequently
affect the livelihood of farmers (see Tables 15 and 16 in Annex for Average yield
per field crop per feddan per governorate without and with temperature increase).
9 For the Egyptian government, wheat, sugar crops, and oil crops are considered strategic crops that
are important for the Egyptian populations’ diet and clover for livestock breeding (meat production),
see [24].